**China's 2026 GDP growth remains centered on the 4.0–5.0% range in trader assessments, reflecting broad alignment with official targets and institutional forecasts.** Half-year data released in July showed 4.7% expansion year-on-year, with Q2 moderating to 4.3% amid softer domestic demand and property-sector drag. This performance stays within Beijing’s 4.5–5% annual goal set at the March Two Sessions and matches projections from the IMF (4.6%), World Bank (4.4%), OECD (4.5%), and ADB (4.6%). Strength in high-tech manufacturing, exports, and industrial output has offset weak consumption and fixed-asset investment tied to housing deleveraging. Policy buffers, including targeted fiscal and monetary measures, appear sufficient to prevent a sharper slowdown, while structural headwinds such as cautious household spending limit upside beyond 5%. Q2 momentum signals and ongoing rebalancing efforts reinforce the narrow band around 4–5% as the dominant outcome, with only modest probability assigned to 5–6% or sub-4% scenarios.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update4.0–5.0% 89%
5.0–6.0% 10.7%
3.0–4.0% 1.1%
8.0–9.0% 1.0%
$875,228 Vol.
$875,228 Vol.
Jan 31, 2026
<1.0%
<1%
1.0–2.0%
<1%
2.0–3.0%
<1%
3.0–4.0%
1%
4.0–5.0%
89%
5.0–6.0%
11%
6.0-7.0%
<1%
7.0–8.0%
<1%
8.0–9.0%
1%
9.0%+
<1%
4.0–5.0% 89%
5.0–6.0% 10.7%
3.0–4.0% 1.1%
8.0–9.0% 1.0%
$875,228 Vol.
$875,228 Vol.
Jan 31, 2026
<1.0%
$64,833 Vol.
<1%
1.0–2.0%
$74,124 Vol.
<1%
2.0–3.0%
$44,776 Vol.
<1%
3.0–4.0%
$80,123 Vol.
1%
4.0–5.0%
$219,717 Vol.
89%
5.0–6.0%
$78,494 Vol.
11%
6.0-7.0%
$82,074 Vol.
<1%
7.0–8.0%
$62,549 Vol.
<1%
8.0–9.0%
$53,031 Vol.
1%
9.0%+
$115,508 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.**China's 2026 GDP growth remains centered on the 4.0–5.0% range in trader assessments, reflecting broad alignment with official targets and institutional forecasts.** Half-year data released in July showed 4.7% expansion year-on-year, with Q2 moderating to 4.3% amid softer domestic demand and property-sector drag. This performance stays within Beijing’s 4.5–5% annual goal set at the March Two Sessions and matches projections from the IMF (4.6%), World Bank (4.4%), OECD (4.5%), and ADB (4.6%).
Strength in high-tech manufacturing, exports, and industrial output has offset weak consumption and fixed-asset investment tied to housing deleveraging. Policy buffers, including targeted fiscal and monetary measures, appear sufficient to prevent a sharper slowdown, while structural headwinds such as cautious household spending limit upside beyond 5%. Q2 momentum signals and ongoing rebalancing efforts reinforce the narrow band around 4–5% as the dominant outcome, with only modest probability assigned to 5–6% or sub-4% scenarios.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Binuksan ang Market: Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volume
$875,228Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.**China's 2026 GDP growth remains centered on the 4.0–5.0% range in trader assessments, reflecting broad alignment with official targets and institutional forecasts.** Half-year data released in July showed 4.7% expansion year-on-year, with Q2 moderating to 4.3% amid softer domestic demand and property-sector drag. This performance stays within Beijing’s 4.5–5% annual goal set at the March Two Sessions and matches projections from the IMF (4.6%), World Bank (4.4%), OECD (4.5%), and ADB (4.6%).
Strength in high-tech manufacturing, exports, and industrial output has offset weak consumption and fixed-asset investment tied to housing deleveraging. Policy buffers, including targeted fiscal and monetary measures, appear sufficient to prevent a sharper slowdown, while structural headwinds such as cautious household spending limit upside beyond 5%. Q2 momentum signals and ongoing rebalancing efforts reinforce the narrow band around 4–5% as the dominant outcome, with only modest probability assigned to 5–6% or sub-4% scenarios.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$875,228Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**China's 2026 GDP growth remains centered on the 4.0–5.0% range in trader assessments, reflecting broad alignment with official targets and institutional forecasts.** Half-year data released in July showed 4.7% expansion year-on-year, with Q2 moderating to 4.3% amid softer domestic demand and property-sector drag. This performance stays within Beijing’s 4.5–5% annual goal set at the March Two Sessions and matches projections from the IMF (4.6%), World Bank (4.4%), OECD (4.5%), and ADB (4.6%). Strength in high-tech manufacturing, exports, and industrial output has offset weak consumption and fixed-asset investment tied to housing deleveraging. Policy buffers, including targeted fiscal and monetary measures, appear sufficient to prevent a sharper slowdown, while structural headwinds such as cautious household spending limit upside beyond 5%. Q2 momentum signals and ongoing rebalancing efforts reinforce the narrow band around 4–5% as the dominant outcome, with only modest probability assigned to 5–6% or sub-4% scenarios.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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