Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 4.0–5.0% annual GDP growth for China in 2026 at 73%, aligning with the official target of 4.5–5% set during March's Two Sessions—the lowest in decades—and major forecasts like IMF's 4.4% and World Bank's 4.4%. Q1 GDP expanded 5.0% year-on-year in April data, beating expectations on resilient exports and industrial output amid global headwinds, though weak domestic consumption and ongoing property sector declines cap upside potential. Fiscal measures, including a 4% budget deficit and special-purpose bonds, provide support, but structural drags like high debt and subdued demand position 5.0–6.0% at 19.7% as a modest outlier, with lower ranges dismissed by policy backstops. Q2 indicators and further stimulus will shape revisions.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update4.0–5.0% 73%
5.0–6.0% 19.8%
6.0-7.0% 2.1%
3.0–4.0% 1.9%
$521,274 Vol.
$521,274 Vol.
Jan 31, 2026
<1.0%
<1%
1.0–2.0%
<1%
2.0–3.0%
<1%
3.0–4.0%
2%
4.0–5.0%
73%
5.0–6.0%
20%
6.0-7.0%
2%
7.0–8.0%
<1%
8.0–9.0%
<1%
9.0%+
<1%
4.0–5.0% 73%
5.0–6.0% 19.8%
6.0-7.0% 2.1%
3.0–4.0% 1.9%
$521,274 Vol.
$521,274 Vol.
Jan 31, 2026
<1.0%
$41,286 Vol.
<1%
1.0–2.0%
$40,222 Vol.
<1%
2.0–3.0%
$20,879 Vol.
<1%
3.0–4.0%
$43,001 Vol.
2%
4.0–5.0%
$134,346 Vol.
73%
5.0–6.0%
$48,485 Vol.
20%
6.0-7.0%
$45,985 Vol.
2%
7.0–8.0%
$44,092 Vol.
<1%
8.0–9.0%
$19,809 Vol.
<1%
9.0%+
$83,170 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 4.0–5.0% annual GDP growth for China in 2026 at 73%, aligning with the official target of 4.5–5% set during March's Two Sessions—the lowest in decades—and major forecasts like IMF's 4.4% and World Bank's 4.4%. Q1 GDP expanded 5.0% year-on-year in April data, beating expectations on resilient exports and industrial output amid global headwinds, though weak domestic consumption and ongoing property sector declines cap upside potential. Fiscal measures, including a 4% budget deficit and special-purpose bonds, provide support, but structural drags like high debt and subdued demand position 5.0–6.0% at 19.7% as a modest outlier, with lower ranges dismissed by policy backstops. Q2 indicators and further stimulus will shape revisions.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Binuksan ang Market: Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volume
$521,274Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 4.0–5.0% annual GDP growth for China in 2026 at 73%, aligning with the official target of 4.5–5% set during March's Two Sessions—the lowest in decades—and major forecasts like IMF's 4.4% and World Bank's 4.4%. Q1 GDP expanded 5.0% year-on-year in April data, beating expectations on resilient exports and industrial output amid global headwinds, though weak domestic consumption and ongoing property sector declines cap upside potential. Fiscal measures, including a 4% budget deficit and special-purpose bonds, provide support, but structural drags like high debt and subdued demand position 5.0–6.0% at 19.7% as a modest outlier, with lower ranges dismissed by policy backstops. Q2 indicators and further stimulus will shape revisions.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$521,274Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 4.0–5.0% annual GDP growth for China in 2026 at 73%, aligning with the official target of 4.5–5% set during March's Two Sessions—the lowest in decades—and major forecasts like IMF's 4.4% and World Bank's 4.4%. Q1 GDP expanded 5.0% year-on-year in April data, beating expectations on resilient exports and industrial output amid global headwinds, though weak domestic consumption and ongoing property sector declines cap upside potential. Fiscal measures, including a 4% budget deficit and special-purpose bonds, provide support, but structural drags like high debt and subdued demand position 5.0–6.0% at 19.7% as a modest outlier, with lower ranges dismissed by policy backstops. Q2 indicators and further stimulus will shape revisions.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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