Robust first-half 2026 momentum underpins the 96.5% market-implied probability against negative annual U.S. real GDP growth. Advance BEA estimates show 2.1% annualized expansion in Q1 and 1.5% in Q2, supported by business fixed investment—especially AI-related capital expenditures—and steady consumer spending. Consensus forecasts from the CBO (2.2%), OECD, S&P Global, and professional forecasters cluster in the 2.0–2.3% range for the full year, reflecting above-potential growth amid stabilizing labor conditions and moderate inflation. This skin-in-the-game trader consensus aligns with fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act offsetting tariff and energy-price headwinds. Tail risks remain limited but include sharper geopolitical energy shocks or material downward revisions to employment or GDP prints that could pressure quarterly readings.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateNegative GDP growth in 2026?
Negative GDP growth in 2026?
4% tsansa
$32,761 Vol.
$32,761 Vol.
Jan 28, 2027
4% tsansa
$32,761 Vol.
$32,761 Vol.
Jan 28, 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Robust first-half 2026 momentum underpins the 96.5% market-implied probability against negative annual U.S. real GDP growth. Advance BEA estimates show 2.1% annualized expansion in Q1 and 1.5% in Q2, supported by business fixed investment—especially AI-related capital expenditures—and steady consumer spending. Consensus forecasts from the CBO (2.2%), OECD, S&P Global, and professional forecasters cluster in the 2.0–2.3% range for the full year, reflecting above-potential growth amid stabilizing labor conditions and moderate inflation. This skin-in-the-game trader consensus aligns with fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act offsetting tariff and energy-price headwinds. Tail risks remain limited but include sharper geopolitical energy shocks or material downward revisions to employment or GDP prints that could pressure quarterly readings.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Binuksan ang Market: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Volume
$32,761Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 29, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Robust first-half 2026 momentum underpins the 96.5% market-implied probability against negative annual U.S. real GDP growth. Advance BEA estimates show 2.1% annualized expansion in Q1 and 1.5% in Q2, supported by business fixed investment—especially AI-related capital expenditures—and steady consumer spending. Consensus forecasts from the CBO (2.2%), OECD, S&P Global, and professional forecasters cluster in the 2.0–2.3% range for the full year, reflecting above-potential growth amid stabilizing labor conditions and moderate inflation. This skin-in-the-game trader consensus aligns with fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act offsetting tariff and energy-price headwinds. Tail risks remain limited but include sharper geopolitical energy shocks or material downward revisions to employment or GDP prints that could pressure quarterly readings.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Volume
$32,761Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 29, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Robust first-half 2026 momentum underpins the 96.5% market-implied probability against negative annual U.S. real GDP growth. Advance BEA estimates show 2.1% annualized expansion in Q1 and 1.5% in Q2, supported by business fixed investment—especially AI-related capital expenditures—and steady consumer spending. Consensus forecasts from the CBO (2.2%), OECD, S&P Global, and professional forecasters cluster in the 2.0–2.3% range for the full year, reflecting above-potential growth amid stabilizing labor conditions and moderate inflation. This skin-in-the-game trader consensus aligns with fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act offsetting tariff and energy-price headwinds. Tail risks remain limited but include sharper geopolitical energy shocks or material downward revisions to employment or GDP prints that could pressure quarterly readings.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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