Elevated inflation and the Federal Reserve’s recent hawkish shift underpin the 96% market-implied probability of zero rate cuts in 2026. After the September 16, 2026, 25-basis-point hike to a 3.75–4.00% target range, officials’ projections pointed to one additional increase by year-end and steady policy into 2027, with median PCE inflation forecasts revised higher to 3.7% for 2026. A softer September jobs report (29,000 payrolls) and August PCE at 3.4% have tempered near-term hike odds but left the broader tightening bias intact, as labor market balance near 4.1% unemployment supports holding rates elevated to anchor expectations. Key upcoming catalysts include the October FOMC minutes, December meeting, and fresh CPI/PCE releases that could alter the market-implied path if disinflation accelerates sharply or growth falters.