Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 71.5% implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, driven by April's hotter-than-expected CPI surge to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—fueled by energy price spikes from the Iran war, alongside resilient April nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.3%. The FOMC's April 29 decision to hold the fed funds target at 3.5%-3.75% amid record dissent underscored caution, aligning with banks like BofA and Goldman Sachs delaying cuts to 2027. March dot plot medians eyed gradual easing, but recent data has shifted sentiment toward prolonged holds. Watch May CPI on June 10 and the June FOMC for potential revisions.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update0 (0 bps) 71.5%
1 (25 bps) 16%
2 (50 bps) 6%
3 (75 bps) 2.4%
$26,545,705 Vol.
$26,545,705 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 bps)
72%
1 (25 bps)
16%
2 (50 bps)
6%
3 (75 bps)
2%
4 (100 bps)
2%
5 (125 bps)
1%
6 (150 bps)
1%
7 (175 bps)
1%
8 (200 bps)
<1%
9 (225 bps)
<1%
10 (250 bps)
<1%
11 (275 bps)
<1%
12+ (300+ bps)
1%
0 (0 bps) 71.5%
1 (25 bps) 16%
2 (50 bps) 6%
3 (75 bps) 2.4%
$26,545,705 Vol.
$26,545,705 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 bps)
$4,120,682 Vol.
72%
1 (25 bps)
$1,229,144 Vol.
16%
2 (50 bps)
$1,179,333 Vol.
6%
3 (75 bps)
$1,085,634 Vol.
2%
4 (100 bps)
$1,188,384 Vol.
2%
5 (125 bps)
$1,399,328 Vol.
1%
6 (150 bps)
$2,450,973 Vol.
1%
7 (175 bps)
$1,314,643 Vol.
1%
8 (200 bps)
$1,703,829 Vol.
<1%
9 (225 bps)
$2,430,759 Vol.
<1%
10 (250 bps)
$3,078,510 Vol.
<1%
11 (275 bps)
$3,237,077 Vol.
<1%
12+ (300+ bps)
$2,129,260 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 71.5% implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, driven by April's hotter-than-expected CPI surge to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—fueled by energy price spikes from the Iran war, alongside resilient April nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.3%. The FOMC's April 29 decision to hold the fed funds target at 3.5%-3.75% amid record dissent underscored caution, aligning with banks like BofA and Goldman Sachs delaying cuts to 2027. March dot plot medians eyed gradual easing, but recent data has shifted sentiment toward prolonged holds. Watch May CPI on June 10 and the June FOMC for potential revisions.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Binuksan ang Market: Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
Volume
$26,545,705Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 71.5% implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, driven by April's hotter-than-expected CPI surge to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—fueled by energy price spikes from the Iran war, alongside resilient April nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.3%. The FOMC's April 29 decision to hold the fed funds target at 3.5%-3.75% amid record dissent underscored caution, aligning with banks like BofA and Goldman Sachs delaying cuts to 2027. March dot plot medians eyed gradual easing, but recent data has shifted sentiment toward prolonged holds. Watch May CPI on June 10 and the June FOMC for potential revisions.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volume
$26,545,705Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 71.5% implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, driven by April's hotter-than-expected CPI surge to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—fueled by energy price spikes from the Iran war, alongside resilient April nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.3%. The FOMC's April 29 decision to hold the fed funds target at 3.5%-3.75% amid record dissent underscored caution, aligning with banks like BofA and Goldman Sachs delaying cuts to 2027. March dot plot medians eyed gradual easing, but recent data has shifted sentiment toward prolonged holds. Watch May CPI on June 10 and the June FOMC for potential revisions.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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