The Justice Department's April 2026 dismissal of its criminal probe into Jerome Powell's congressional testimony on Federal Reserve headquarters renovations—citing insufficient evidence—remains the dominant factor anchoring trader consensus at roughly 3-7% implied probability of federal charges by year-end. With subpoenas quashed and no indictment filed, markets price in negligible tail risk despite Powell's shift from chair (term ended May 2026) to governor role. Recent Fed statements and upcoming Jackson Hole remarks on monetary policy offer limited new catalysts, as the absence of active proceedings and judicial findings of no wrongdoing continue to shape skin-in-the-game sentiment around any renewed political scrutiny.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update$318,661 Vol.

December 31, 2026
26%
$318,661 Vol.

December 31, 2026
26%
For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Binuksan ang Market: Jun 28, 2026, 5:15 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The Justice Department's April 2026 dismissal of its criminal probe into Jerome Powell's congressional testimony on Federal Reserve headquarters renovations—citing insufficient evidence—remains the dominant factor anchoring trader consensus at roughly 3-7% implied probability of federal charges by year-end. With subpoenas quashed and no indictment filed, markets price in negligible tail risk despite Powell's shift from chair (term ended May 2026) to governor role. Recent Fed statements and upcoming Jackson Hole remarks on monetary policy offer limited new catalysts, as the absence of active proceedings and judicial findings of no wrongdoing continue to shape skin-in-the-game sentiment around any renewed political scrutiny.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update


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