The short window until August 31 constrains viable paths for a presidential transition, as removal through impeachment requires House approval followed by a two-thirds Senate vote while resignation typically follows only after sustained institutional or personal pressures not evident in current conditions. Traders assign high probability to continuity based on the absence of acute health developments, major legal resolutions, or congressional actions that historically precede early exits. Structural factors such as term length and party dynamics further reduce near-term turnover risks. Realistic scenarios that could still shift outcomes include an unforeseen medical event prompting resignation or rapid escalation in investigations producing bipartisan momentum, though both remain low-probability within the compressed timeframe.