US law under CAATSA and the FY2020 NDAA bars Turkey from rejoining the F-35 program or receiving aircraft until it no longer possesses the Russian S-400 system and provides credible assurances against future Russian air-defense acquisitions. Recent momentum stems from the July 2026 NATO summit in Ankara, where President Trump signaled willingness to lift related sanctions and consider F-35 access during bilateral talks with President Erdogan, prompting Turkish officials to form working groups and describe a near-term path forward. However, a July 22 State Department letter reaffirmed that Turkey has not met statutory conditions, with any resolution requiring transparent, lawful steps consistent with US national security. Opposition from Israel and Greece, plus congressional oversight of certifications or waivers, continues to shape timelines, while parallel progress on US jet-engine sales for Turkey’s KAAN fighter offers limited near-term precedent.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update$43,461 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31, 2026
10%
June 30, 2027
34%
$43,461 Vol.
December 31, 2026
$31,959 Vol.
10%
June 30, 2027
$11,502 Vol.
34%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.US law under CAATSA and the FY2020 NDAA bars Turkey from rejoining the F-35 program or receiving aircraft until it no longer possesses the Russian S-400 system and provides credible assurances against future Russian air-defense acquisitions. Recent momentum stems from the July 2026 NATO summit in Ankara, where President Trump signaled willingness to lift related sanctions and consider F-35 access during bilateral talks with President Erdogan, prompting Turkish officials to form working groups and describe a near-term path forward. However, a July 22 State Department letter reaffirmed that Turkey has not met statutory conditions, with any resolution requiring transparent, lawful steps consistent with US national security. Opposition from Israel and Greece, plus congressional oversight of certifications or waivers, continues to shape timelines, while parallel progress on US jet-engine sales for Turkey’s KAAN fighter offers limited near-term precedent.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Binuksan ang Market: Jul 14, 2026, 10:15 AM ET
Volume
$43,461Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jul 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Jul 14, 2026, 10:15 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.US law under CAATSA and the FY2020 NDAA bars Turkey from rejoining the F-35 program or receiving aircraft until it no longer possesses the Russian S-400 system and provides credible assurances against future Russian air-defense acquisitions. Recent momentum stems from the July 2026 NATO summit in Ankara, where President Trump signaled willingness to lift related sanctions and consider F-35 access during bilateral talks with President Erdogan, prompting Turkish officials to form working groups and describe a near-term path forward. However, a July 22 State Department letter reaffirmed that Turkey has not met statutory conditions, with any resolution requiring transparent, lawful steps consistent with US national security. Opposition from Israel and Greece, plus congressional oversight of certifications or waivers, continues to shape timelines, while parallel progress on US jet-engine sales for Turkey’s KAAN fighter offers limited near-term precedent.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Volume
$43,461Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jul 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Jul 14, 2026, 10:15 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US law under CAATSA and the FY2020 NDAA bars Turkey from rejoining the F-35 program or receiving aircraft until it no longer possesses the Russian S-400 system and provides credible assurances against future Russian air-defense acquisitions. Recent momentum stems from the July 2026 NATO summit in Ankara, where President Trump signaled willingness to lift related sanctions and consider F-35 access during bilateral talks with President Erdogan, prompting Turkish officials to form working groups and describe a near-term path forward. However, a July 22 State Department letter reaffirmed that Turkey has not met statutory conditions, with any resolution requiring transparent, lawful steps consistent with US national security. Opposition from Israel and Greece, plus congressional oversight of certifications or waivers, continues to shape timelines, while parallel progress on US jet-engine sales for Turkey’s KAAN fighter offers limited near-term precedent.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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