This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Recent high-profile departures from President Trump's cabinet—including Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem's resignation under pressure on March 5, Attorney General Pam Bondi's ouster in early April, and Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer's exit in late April—have fueled trader consensus on elevated turnover risks before 2027. These rapid changes, amid reported policy clashes and scandals, echo the first Trump's term sky-high departure rates tracked by Brookings Institution analyses. Key figures like FBI Director Kash Patel face scrutiny following public clashes with senators, while Chief of Staff Susie Wiles draws bets on potential shifts. Upcoming 2026 midterm elections in November could prompt further realignments as Republicans defend congressional majorities, with replacements requiring Senate confirmation votes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Recent high-profile departures from President Trump's cabinet—including Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem's resignation under pressure on March 5, Attorney General Pam Bondi's ouster in early April, and Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer's exit in late April—have fueled trader consensus on elevated turnover risks before 2027. These rapid changes, amid reported policy clashes and scandals, echo the first Trump's term sky-high departure rates tracked by Brookings Institution analyses. Key figures like FBI Director Kash Patel face scrutiny following public clashes with senators, while Chief of Staff Susie Wiles draws bets on potential shifts. Upcoming 2026 midterm elections in November could prompt further realignments as Republicans defend congressional majorities, with replacements requiring Senate confirmation votes.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
May 5 2026
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth censures Senator Mark Kelly over military video
Pete Hegseth dips to 37%4%
Pete Hegseth censured Senator Mark Kelly for participating in a video urging troops to resist unlawful orders, escalating political tensions and affecting Hegseth’s market price.
Apr 2 2026
Pam Bondi announces departure as Attorney General amid legal challenges
Susie Wiles jumps to 39%5%
Attorney General Pam Bondi announced her departure following court rulings that challenged the legality of several Trump-appointed prosecutors, including herself. This event influenced the market prices for Bondi and related figures like Lee Zeldin.
Mar 10 2026
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick linked to Jeffrey Epstein in released files
Howard Lutnick drops to 28%8%
Documents released by the Justice Department revealed Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick planned a visit to Jeffrey Epstein’s private island in 2012, contradicting prior statements. This association led to calls for his resignation and affected his market price.
Feb 27 2026
Trump administration takes punitive action against AI company Anthropic
Pete Hegseth surges to 41%17%
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and the Trump administration sought to declare Anthropic a supply chain risk over a contract dispute, leading to a federal judge blocking the action. White House chief of staff Susie Wiles met with Anthropic's CEO to discuss AI technology, impacting their market prices.
Feb 6 2026
Trump’s racist post about Obamas deleted after backlash
Susie Wiles jumps to 39%5%
President Trump deleted a racist social media post about the Obamas after bipartisan backlash, with White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt defending the pro-family environment in the White House. This event influenced perceptions of Susie Wiles and the administration's image, affecting her market price.
Jan 30 2026
FBI search of Georgia election offices cites years-old fraud claims
Tulsi Gabbard rises to 40%1%
The FBI obtained a search warrant for Fulton County election offices based on long-discredited claims of fraud in the 2020 election, initiating a high-profile investigation. Tulsi Gabbard's presence at the search raised concerns about politicization and affected her market price.
Dec 30 2025
Howard Lutnick’s name appears in lawsuit over FBI agent firings
Howard Lutnick jumps to 28%7%
The lawsuit cited Director Kash Patel’s role in firing agents, indirectly implicating Lutnick, a senior advisor, and raising questions about his future in the administration, nudging his price upward.
Dec 22 2025
Kristi Noem announces DHS fraud investigation in Minneapolis
Kristi Noem surges to 65%15%
Noem’s public announcement of a DHS fraud probe linked her directly to a major enforcement action, increasing speculation that she might be reassigned or step down, lifting her departure odds.
Dec 20 2025
Tulsi Gabbard appears in FBI’s Georgia election‑office search
Tulsi Gabbard surges to 42%15%
Gabbard’s presence at the high‑profile search tied her directly to a controversial FBI operation, raising doubts about her staying in the administration and pushing her market price up.
Dec 15 2025
FBI appoints co‑deputy director after Bongino’s departure
Kash Patel surges to 78%20%
The appointment of Christopher Raia as co‑deputy director signaled a shift in FBI leadership, increasing expectations that Patel’s role could be diminished, further lifting Patel’s departure probability.
Dec 2 2025
Kristi Noem announces DHS fraud investigation in Minneapolis
Kristi Noem rises to 51%1%
As Secretary of Homeland Security, Kristi Noem disclosed a fraud probe targeting a large childcare fraud scheme in Minneapolis, signaling active involvement in enforcement and increasing speculation about her tenure in the administration.
Dec 1 2025
FBI Deputy Director Dan Bongino announces resignation plan
Kash Patel surges to 63%24%
Bongino said he will resign next month, prompting speculation about instability in the FBI under Director Kash Patel and raising expectations that Patel may be replaced, boosting odds of Patel’s departure.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Recent high-profile departures from President Trump's cabinet—including Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem's resignation under pressure on March 5, Attorney General Pam Bondi's ouster in early April, and Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer's exit in late April—have fueled trader consensus on elevated turnover risks before 2027. These rapid changes, amid reported policy clashes and scandals, echo the first Trump's term sky-high departure rates tracked by Brookings Institution analyses. Key figures like FBI Director Kash Patel face scrutiny following public clashes with senators, while Chief of Staff Susie Wiles draws bets on potential shifts. Upcoming 2026 midterm elections in November could prompt further realignments as Republicans defend congressional majorities, with replacements requiring Senate confirmation votes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Recent high-profile departures from President Trump's cabinet—including Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem's resignation under pressure on March 5, Attorney General Pam Bondi's ouster in early April, and Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer's exit in late April—have fueled trader consensus on elevated turnover risks before 2027. These rapid changes, amid reported policy clashes and scandals, echo the first Trump's term sky-high departure rates tracked by Brookings Institution analyses. Key figures like FBI Director Kash Patel face scrutiny following public clashes with senators, while Chief of Staff Susie Wiles draws bets on potential shifts. Upcoming 2026 midterm elections in November could prompt further realignments as Republicans defend congressional majorities, with replacements requiring Senate confirmation votes.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
May 5 2026
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth censures Senator Mark Kelly over military video
Pete Hegseth dips to 37%4%
Pete Hegseth censured Senator Mark Kelly for participating in a video urging troops to resist unlawful orders, escalating political tensions and affecting Hegseth’s market price.
Apr 2 2026
Pam Bondi announces departure as Attorney General amid legal challenges
Susie Wiles jumps to 39%5%
Attorney General Pam Bondi announced her departure following court rulings that challenged the legality of several Trump-appointed prosecutors, including herself. This event influenced the market prices for Bondi and related figures like Lee Zeldin.
Mar 10 2026
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick linked to Jeffrey Epstein in released files
Howard Lutnick drops to 28%8%
Documents released by the Justice Department revealed Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick planned a visit to Jeffrey Epstein’s private island in 2012, contradicting prior statements. This association led to calls for his resignation and affected his market price.
Feb 27 2026
Trump administration takes punitive action against AI company Anthropic
Pete Hegseth surges to 41%17%
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and the Trump administration sought to declare Anthropic a supply chain risk over a contract dispute, leading to a federal judge blocking the action. White House chief of staff Susie Wiles met with Anthropic's CEO to discuss AI technology, impacting their market prices.
Feb 6 2026
Trump’s racist post about Obamas deleted after backlash
Susie Wiles jumps to 39%5%
President Trump deleted a racist social media post about the Obamas after bipartisan backlash, with White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt defending the pro-family environment in the White House. This event influenced perceptions of Susie Wiles and the administration's image, affecting her market price.
Jan 30 2026
FBI search of Georgia election offices cites years-old fraud claims
Tulsi Gabbard rises to 40%1%
The FBI obtained a search warrant for Fulton County election offices based on long-discredited claims of fraud in the 2020 election, initiating a high-profile investigation. Tulsi Gabbard's presence at the search raised concerns about politicization and affected her market price.
Dec 30 2025
Howard Lutnick’s name appears in lawsuit over FBI agent firings
Howard Lutnick jumps to 28%7%
The lawsuit cited Director Kash Patel’s role in firing agents, indirectly implicating Lutnick, a senior advisor, and raising questions about his future in the administration, nudging his price upward.
Dec 22 2025
Kristi Noem announces DHS fraud investigation in Minneapolis
Kristi Noem surges to 65%15%
Noem’s public announcement of a DHS fraud probe linked her directly to a major enforcement action, increasing speculation that she might be reassigned or step down, lifting her departure odds.
Dec 20 2025
Tulsi Gabbard appears in FBI’s Georgia election‑office search
Tulsi Gabbard surges to 42%15%
Gabbard’s presence at the high‑profile search tied her directly to a controversial FBI operation, raising doubts about her staying in the administration and pushing her market price up.
Dec 15 2025
FBI appoints co‑deputy director after Bongino’s departure
Kash Patel surges to 78%20%
The appointment of Christopher Raia as co‑deputy director signaled a shift in FBI leadership, increasing expectations that Patel’s role could be diminished, further lifting Patel’s departure probability.
Dec 2 2025
Kristi Noem announces DHS fraud investigation in Minneapolis
Kristi Noem rises to 51%1%
As Secretary of Homeland Security, Kristi Noem disclosed a fraud probe targeting a large childcare fraud scheme in Minneapolis, signaling active involvement in enforcement and increasing speculation about her tenure in the administration.
Dec 1 2025
FBI Deputy Director Dan Bongino announces resignation plan
Kash Patel surges to 63%24%
Bongino said he will resign next month, prompting speculation about instability in the FBI under Director Kash Patel and raising expectations that Patel may be replaced, boosting odds of Patel’s departure.
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Ang "Sino ang aalis sa Trump Administration bago ang 2027?" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 20 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "Pam Bondi" sa 100%, sinusundan ng "Dan Bongino" sa 100%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 100¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 100% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.
Sa ngayon, ang "Sino ang aalis sa Trump Administration bago ang 2027?" ay naka-generate ng $1.2 million sa kabuuang trading volume mula nang ilunsad ang market noong Nov 5, 2025. Ang antas na ito ng trading activity ay sumasalamin sa malakas na engagement mula sa Polymarket community at tumutulong na matiyak na ang kasalukuyang odds ay sinusuportahan ng malawak na pool ng mga market participant. Maaari mong subaybayan ang live price movements at mag-trade sa anumang outcome nang direkta sa pahinang ito.
Para mag-trade sa "Sino ang aalis sa Trump Administration bago ang 2027?," i-browse ang 20 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.
Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "Sino ang aalis sa Trump Administration bago ang 2027?" ay "Pam Bondi" sa 100%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 100% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "Dan Bongino" sa 100%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.
Ang mga resolution rules para sa "Sino ang aalis sa Trump Administration bago ang 2027?" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.
Oo. Hindi mo kailangang mag-trade para manatiling informed. Ang pahinang ito ay nagsisilbing live tracker para sa "Sino ang aalis sa Trump Administration bago ang 2027?." Nag-a-update ang outcome probabilities sa real-time habang pumasok ang mga bagong trade. Maaari mong i-bookmark ang pahinang ito at tingnan ang comments section para makita kung ano ang sinasabi ng ibang mga trader. Maaari mo ring gamitin ang time-range filters sa chart para makita kung paano nagbago ang odds sa paglipas ng panahon. Isang libre, real-time na bintana ito sa kung ano ang inaasahan ng market na mangyayari.
Ang Polymarket odds ay itinatakda ng mga tunay na trader na naglalagay ng tunay na pera sa kanilang mga paniniwala, na may tendensiyang maglabas ng mga tumpak na prediksiyon. Sa $1.2 million na na-trade sa "Sino ang aalis sa Trump Administration bago ang 2027?," pinagsasama-sama ng mga presyong ito ang kolektibong kaalaman at conviction ng libu-libong kalahok — na kadalasang mas mahusay kaysa sa mga poll, expert forecast, at tradisyonal na survey. Ang mga prediction market tulad ng Polymarket ay may malakas na track record ng accuracy, lalo na habang papalapit ang mga event sa kanilang resolution date. Halimbawa, ang Polymarket ay may one month accuracy score na 94%. Para sa pinakabagong stats sa prediction accuracy ng Polymarket, bisitahin ang accuracy page sa Polymarket.
Para ilagay ang iyong unang trade sa "Sino ang aalis sa Trump Administration bago ang 2027?," mag-sign up para sa libreng Polymarket account at i-fund ito gamit ang crypto, credit o debit card, o bank transfer. Kapag na-fund na ang iyong account, bumalik sa pahinang ito, piliin ang outcome na gusto mong i-trade, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung bago ka sa prediction markets, i-click ang "How it works" link sa itaas ng anumang Polymarket page para sa mabilis na step-by-step walkthrough kung paano gumagana ang trading.
Sa Polymarket, ang presyo ng bawat outcome ay kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Ang presyong 100¢ para sa "Pam Bondi" sa "Sino ang aalis sa Trump Administration bago ang 2027?" market ay nangangahulugang kolektibong naniniwala ang mga trader na may halos 100% na tsansa na ang "Pam Bondi" ang magiging tamang resulta. Kung bibili ka ng "Yes" shares sa 100¢ at tama ang outcome, makakatanggap ka ng $1.00 per share — isang kita na 0¢ per share. Kung mali, ang mga share na iyon ay nagkakahalaga ng $0.
Ang "Sino ang aalis sa Trump Administration bago ang 2027?" market ay naka-schedule na mag-resolve sa o bandang Dec 31, 2026. Ibig sabihin ang trading ay mananatiling bukas at patuloy na magbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon hanggang sa petsang iyon. Ang eksaktong timing ng resolution ay nakadepende sa kung kailan magiging available ang opisyal na resulta, gaya ng nakabalangkas sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito.
Ang "Sino ang aalis sa Trump Administration bago ang 2027?" market ay may isang aktibong komunidad ng 76 mga komento kung saan nagbabahagi ang mga trader ng kanilang analysis, nag-debate ng mga outcome, at pinag-uusapan ang mga breaking development. Mag-scroll pababa sa comments section sa ibaba para basahin kung ano ang iniisip ng ibang kalahok. Maaari mo ring i-filter ayon sa "Top Holders" para makita kung saan nakaposisyon ang mga pinakamalaking trader ng market, o tingnan ang "Activity" tab para sa real-time feed ng mga trade.
Ang Polymarket ang pinakamalaking prediction market sa mundo, kung saan maaari kang manatiling informed at kumita mula sa iyong kaalaman sa mga real-world events. Bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares sa mga outcome para sa mga paksang mula pulitika at eleksyon hanggang crypto, finance, sports, tech, at kultura, kasama ang mga market tulad ng "Sino ang aalis sa Trump Administration bago ang 2027?." Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities na sinusuportahan ng financial conviction, na kadalasang nagbibigay ng mas mabilis at mas tumpak na signal kaysa sa mga poll, pundit, o tradisyonal na survey.
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