Ongoing hostilities in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, including intensified Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure ahead of winter 2026-2027, have sustained deep mistrust and incompatible negotiating positions that block direct presidential engagement. Recent U.S. proposals for technical-level trilateral talks by late October, potentially in the UAE or another venue, reflect renewed mediation efforts but center on lower-level delegations rather than Zelenskyy-Putin summits. Moscow has signaled openness without commitment, while both sides continue long-range operations and reject key preconditions from the other. Historical patterns of stalled diplomacy and leadership reluctance further underpin trader consensus around no meeting before 2027. A verified direct summit could still emerge if battlefield pressures or third-party facilitation overcome these barriers within the timeframe.