**Traders assign the highest probability (59%) to fewer than five posts from the @khamenei_ir account during August 18–25, 2026, reflecting the account’s established pattern of low-volume activity.** Since Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s death earlier in 2026, the verified account has functioned primarily as an archival platform managed by his office, reposting older statements on topics such as resistance, religious commemorations, and historical events rather than issuing frequent new commentary. Recent output in early August consisted of only a handful of such archival posts, consistent with the subdued cadence observed in the post-transition period. Mojtaba Khamenei’s separate account has handled more operational announcements, but activity across official channels has remained limited absent acute diplomatic or military developments. With no major scheduled events, votes, or crises aligned to the resolution window, the market’s pricing aligns with this baseline rate of occasional historical or commemorative updates.