**Trilateral leader-level talks remain stalled despite bilateral diplomacy.** As of mid-August 2026, U.S. President Trump has held separate meetings with Ukrainian President Zelensky (including White House and NATO-summit encounters in July) and Russian President Putin (notably the 2025 Alaska summit), while envoy-level trilateral discussions occurred earlier in the year. However, no joint meeting of all three leaders has taken place, and ongoing battlefield developments—Russian territorial gains, intensified long-range strikes by both sides, and disagreements over territory and security guarantees—have kept formal negotiations frozen. **Time constraints and procedural hurdles reinforce the current trader consensus.** With only four-plus months remaining before 2027 and no scheduled three-way summit on the calendar, the 93.5% implied probability for “No” reflects the absence of confirmed plans or recent diplomatic breakthroughs that would enable such a gathering. Lower-level talks and bilateral channels continue, but structural barriers—including Putin’s historical reluctance for direct three-way formats and the lack of progress on core issues—make a leaders’ meeting before year-end unlikely absent a sudden shift in positions.