Entrenched positions on territorial control, security guarantees, and the format of any direct engagement have sustained trader consensus that a trilateral meeting of Trump, Putin, and Zelenskyy is unlikely before 2027. Recent US-brokered diplomacy has produced plans for technical-level trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi in early November 2026, alongside shuttle efforts by envoys and signals of possible bilateral leader contacts, yet Putin has continued to condition any summit with Zelenskyy on major concessions while favoring formats that exclude or sideline Kyiv. Ongoing battlefield strikes and disputes over ceasefires reinforce the barriers. A verified breakthrough in the Abu Dhabi round, an unexpected G20-side encounter in December, or a sudden shift in Russian demands could still alter the trajectory within the resolution window.