Ukraine's ongoing martial law, extended through at least October 2026 and tied directly to the Russia-Ukraine war, constitutionally bars presidential elections and has allowed incumbent Volodymyr Zelenskyy to remain in office beyond his May 2024 term expiration. Parliament reinforced this position in early October 2026 by passing a resolution affirming his legitimacy and stating that votes cannot occur until after a just and lasting peace. Zelenskyy has conditioned any election on allied security guarantees while highlighting risks of division during active conflict, with recent polls showing competitive but not decisive support for alternatives like Valeriy Zaluzhnyi. Trader consensus at 95% for "No" reflects these structural barriers and the low probability of war resolution enabling a transition before year-end, though an unexpected ceasefire or major internal shift could still alter the timeline.