Jerome Powell faces no realistic prospect of imprisonment before 2027, as reflected in the 98.2% market-implied probability for “No.” A politically charged DOJ criminal probe into his congressional testimony and the Federal Reserve’s headquarters renovation was opened in January 2026 but closed without charges in April 2026 after a federal judge found no evidence of wrongdoing. Powell completed his term as Fed Chair in May 2026 and transitioned to a Board governor role through January 2028, maintaining his standard public-service status without ongoing legal exposure. Trader consensus rests on the absence of indictments, completed investigation, and institutional norms protecting senior monetary-policy officials. Remote tail risks, such as an unforeseen new probe or unrelated personal matter, remain possible but lack any supporting developments or precedent.