Polymarket traders reflect near-unanimous consensus with a 96.1% implied probability on "No" for Jerome Powell facing jail before 2027, driven by the U.S. Department of Justice's April 24, 2026, decision to drop its criminal probe into the Federal Reserve chair over alleged Eccles Building renovation overruns and congressional testimony—transferring the matter to the Fed's inspector general with no charges filed. This closure, viewed as politically motivated pressure amid Trump administration rate disputes, eliminates the sole credible legal threat, reinforcing Powell's position as he transitions from chair (term ends May 15, 2026) to Fed governor through January 2028. Tail risks include unforeseen congressional referrals or new probes, though barriers like prosecutorial discretion and lack of evidence render them improbable.