The Federal Reserve's September 16, 2026, decision to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a 3.75%-4.00% target range, the first increase since 2023, combined with a hawkish dot plot showing 16 of 18 policymakers projecting at least one additional quarter-point move by year-end, underpins the elevated 83.5% implied probability for another hike in 2026. Persistent inflation, with the median PCE forecast lifted to 3.7% for 2026 and the 2% target now not expected until 2029, alongside solid GDP growth projections near 2.3% and a resilient labor market with unemployment at 4.1%, drove the shift. Chair Kevin Warsh's comments emphasized timely return to price stability amid upside risks. Markets now price roughly 50% odds for an October hike and near-certain follow-through by December, with the next key catalysts being incoming data ahead of the October 27-28 and December FOMC meetings.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update84% tsansa
BAGO
$40,999 Vol.
BAGO
$40,999 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
84% tsansa
BAGO
$40,999 Vol.
BAGO
$40,999 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Federal Reserve's September 16, 2026, decision to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a 3.75%-4.00% target range, the first increase since 2023, combined with a hawkish dot plot showing 16 of 18 policymakers projecting at least one additional quarter-point move by year-end, underpins the elevated 83.5% implied probability for another hike in 2026. Persistent inflation, with the median PCE forecast lifted to 3.7% for 2026 and the 2% target now not expected until 2029, alongside solid GDP growth projections near 2.3% and a resilient labor market with unemployment at 4.1%, drove the shift. Chair Kevin Warsh's comments emphasized timely return to price stability amid upside risks. Markets now price roughly 50% odds for an October hike and near-certain follow-through by December, with the next key catalysts being incoming data ahead of the October 27-28 and December FOMC meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Binuksan ang Market: Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volume
$40,999Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 9, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Federal Reserve's September 16, 2026, decision to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a 3.75%-4.00% target range, the first increase since 2023, combined with a hawkish dot plot showing 16 of 18 policymakers projecting at least one additional quarter-point move by year-end, underpins the elevated 83.5% implied probability for another hike in 2026. Persistent inflation, with the median PCE forecast lifted to 3.7% for 2026 and the 2% target now not expected until 2029, alongside solid GDP growth projections near 2.3% and a resilient labor market with unemployment at 4.1%, drove the shift. Chair Kevin Warsh's comments emphasized timely return to price stability amid upside risks. Markets now price roughly 50% odds for an October hike and near-certain follow-through by December, with the next key catalysts being incoming data ahead of the October 27-28 and December FOMC meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$40,999Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 9, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Federal Reserve's September 16, 2026, decision to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a 3.75%-4.00% target range, the first increase since 2023, combined with a hawkish dot plot showing 16 of 18 policymakers projecting at least one additional quarter-point move by year-end, underpins the elevated 83.5% implied probability for another hike in 2026. Persistent inflation, with the median PCE forecast lifted to 3.7% for 2026 and the 2% target now not expected until 2029, alongside solid GDP growth projections near 2.3% and a resilient labor market with unemployment at 4.1%, drove the shift. Chair Kevin Warsh's comments emphasized timely return to price stability amid upside risks. Markets now price roughly 50% odds for an October hike and near-certain follow-through by December, with the next key catalysts being incoming data ahead of the October 27-28 and December FOMC meetings.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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