Trump’s appointment of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair in May 2026 anchors the 98.8% market-implied probability against any removal attempt through year-end. Recent FOMC actions, including the September unanimous 25-basis-point rate increase to the 3.75-4.00% target range amid elevated inflation, prompted only measured White House criticism, with the president publicly affirming confidence in Warsh while faulting the broader board and reiterating respect for central-bank independence. Supreme Court rulings preserving the Fed’s structural protections further limit formal removal pathways. Traders price in continued alignment on monetary-policy transmission and Treasury-yield stability rather than confrontation, though sustained hawkish deviations from administration rate preferences could introduce tail-risk friction before December 31.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update1% tsansa
$30,017 Vol.
$30,017 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
1% tsansa
$30,017 Vol.
$30,017 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trump’s appointment of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair in May 2026 anchors the 98.8% market-implied probability against any removal attempt through year-end. Recent FOMC actions, including the September unanimous 25-basis-point rate increase to the 3.75-4.00% target range amid elevated inflation, prompted only measured White House criticism, with the president publicly affirming confidence in Warsh while faulting the broader board and reiterating respect for central-bank independence. Supreme Court rulings preserving the Fed’s structural protections further limit formal removal pathways. Traders price in continued alignment on monetary-policy transmission and Treasury-yield stability rather than confrontation, though sustained hawkish deviations from administration rate preferences could introduce tail-risk friction before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Binuksan ang Market: Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ET
Volume
$30,017Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trump’s appointment of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair in May 2026 anchors the 98.8% market-implied probability against any removal attempt through year-end. Recent FOMC actions, including the September unanimous 25-basis-point rate increase to the 3.75-4.00% target range amid elevated inflation, prompted only measured White House criticism, with the president publicly affirming confidence in Warsh while faulting the broader board and reiterating respect for central-bank independence. Supreme Court rulings preserving the Fed’s structural protections further limit formal removal pathways. Traders price in continued alignment on monetary-policy transmission and Treasury-yield stability rather than confrontation, though sustained hawkish deviations from administration rate preferences could introduce tail-risk friction before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$30,017Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trump’s appointment of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair in May 2026 anchors the 98.8% market-implied probability against any removal attempt through year-end. Recent FOMC actions, including the September unanimous 25-basis-point rate increase to the 3.75-4.00% target range amid elevated inflation, prompted only measured White House criticism, with the president publicly affirming confidence in Warsh while faulting the broader board and reiterating respect for central-bank independence. Supreme Court rulings preserving the Fed’s structural protections further limit formal removal pathways. Traders price in continued alignment on monetary-policy transmission and Treasury-yield stability rather than confrontation, though sustained hawkish deviations from administration rate preferences could introduce tail-risk friction before December 31.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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