Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with August PCE at 3.4% headline and 3% core, combined with FOMC minutes signaling a likely additional 25-basis-point hike by year-end, underpins the 70% market-implied probability for two total 2026 rate increases. The September 25 bp hike to the 3.75-4.00% range and the September SEP median projection of a 4.1% federal funds rate at end-2026 align with trader consensus for one more tightening before December. A stable though softening labor market, with September payrolls at just 29,000, tempers expectations for three or more hikes while supporting the low odds on zero or one total increase. Key upcoming data releases and the October 28-29 and December FOMC meetings will shape any shifts in these probabilities.