Elevated inflation persisting above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, with June CPI at 3.5% year-over-year, combined with a divided FOMC’s 9-3 July hold at the 3.50%-3.75% federal funds range and three dissents favoring a hike, anchors trader sentiment toward zero or one additional 25-basis-point move for the balance of 2026. Recent moderation in core measures and softer labor data have tempered expectations for multiple hikes, aligning with economist polls favoring a steady policy stance despite Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on price stability. Market-implied odds reflect this balance, with upcoming September CPI and FOMC decisions as key catalysts that could shift probabilities if inflation reaccelerates or growth weakens further.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateHow many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
0 (0 bps) 44%
1 (25 bps) 33%
2 (50 bps) 13%
3 (75 bps) 3.9%
$157,496 Vol.
$157,496 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 bps)
44%
1 (25 bps)
33%
2 (50 bps)
13%
3 (75 bps)
4%
4 (100 bps)
1%
5+ (125+ bps)
<1%
0 (0 bps) 44%
1 (25 bps) 33%
2 (50 bps) 13%
3 (75 bps) 3.9%
$157,496 Vol.
$157,496 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 bps)
$67,881 Vol.
44%
1 (25 bps)
$22,209 Vol.
33%
2 (50 bps)
$37,028 Vol.
13%
3 (75 bps)
$18,489 Vol.
4%
4 (100 bps)
$5,557 Vol.
1%
5+ (125+ bps)
$6,331 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Elevated inflation persisting above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, with June CPI at 3.5% year-over-year, combined with a divided FOMC’s 9-3 July hold at the 3.50%-3.75% federal funds range and three dissents favoring a hike, anchors trader sentiment toward zero or one additional 25-basis-point move for the balance of 2026. Recent moderation in core measures and softer labor data have tempered expectations for multiple hikes, aligning with economist polls favoring a steady policy stance despite Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on price stability. Market-implied odds reflect this balance, with upcoming September CPI and FOMC decisions as key catalysts that could shift probabilities if inflation reaccelerates or growth weakens further.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Binuksan ang Market: Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ET
Volume
$157,496Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Elevated inflation persisting above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, with June CPI at 3.5% year-over-year, combined with a divided FOMC’s 9-3 July hold at the 3.50%-3.75% federal funds range and three dissents favoring a hike, anchors trader sentiment toward zero or one additional 25-basis-point move for the balance of 2026. Recent moderation in core measures and softer labor data have tempered expectations for multiple hikes, aligning with economist polls favoring a steady policy stance despite Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on price stability. Market-implied odds reflect this balance, with upcoming September CPI and FOMC decisions as key catalysts that could shift probabilities if inflation reaccelerates or growth weakens further.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volume
$157,496Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation persisting above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, with June CPI at 3.5% year-over-year, combined with a divided FOMC’s 9-3 July hold at the 3.50%-3.75% federal funds range and three dissents favoring a hike, anchors trader sentiment toward zero or one additional 25-basis-point move for the balance of 2026. Recent moderation in core measures and softer labor data have tempered expectations for multiple hikes, aligning with economist polls favoring a steady policy stance despite Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on price stability. Market-implied odds reflect this balance, with upcoming September CPI and FOMC decisions as key catalysts that could shift probabilities if inflation reaccelerates or growth weakens further.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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