Easing June 2026 CPI data, which slowed to 3.5% year-over-year from 4.2% in May, combined with the Fed’s July 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% despite three hawkish dissents, anchors trader consensus around zero or one 25-basis-point hike for the full year. Stable labor market conditions and solid economic growth have tempered immediate tightening pressures, while the June dot plot revealed a split committee with roughly half projecting at least one increase. Upcoming September FOMC deliberations, the August 12 CPI release, and Jackson Hole will provide fresh signals on whether persistent energy-driven inflation or Middle East supply shocks shift the market-implied path.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateHow many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
0 (0 bps) 45%
1 (25 bps) 33%
2 (50 bps) 12%
3 (75 bps) 3.5%
$135,746 Vol.
$135,746 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 bps)
45%
1 (25 bps)
33%
2 (50 bps)
12%
3 (75 bps)
3%
4 (100 bps)
1%
5+ (125+ bps)
<1%
0 (0 bps) 45%
1 (25 bps) 33%
2 (50 bps) 12%
3 (75 bps) 3.5%
$135,746 Vol.
$135,746 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 bps)
$59,237 Vol.
45%
1 (25 bps)
$19,218 Vol.
33%
2 (50 bps)
$32,529 Vol.
12%
3 (75 bps)
$13,128 Vol.
3%
4 (100 bps)
$5,396 Vol.
1%
5+ (125+ bps)
$6,237 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Easing June 2026 CPI data, which slowed to 3.5% year-over-year from 4.2% in May, combined with the Fed’s July 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% despite three hawkish dissents, anchors trader consensus around zero or one 25-basis-point hike for the full year. Stable labor market conditions and solid economic growth have tempered immediate tightening pressures, while the June dot plot revealed a split committee with roughly half projecting at least one increase. Upcoming September FOMC deliberations, the August 12 CPI release, and Jackson Hole will provide fresh signals on whether persistent energy-driven inflation or Middle East supply shocks shift the market-implied path.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Binuksan ang Market: Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ET
Volume
$135,746Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Easing June 2026 CPI data, which slowed to 3.5% year-over-year from 4.2% in May, combined with the Fed’s July 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% despite three hawkish dissents, anchors trader consensus around zero or one 25-basis-point hike for the full year. Stable labor market conditions and solid economic growth have tempered immediate tightening pressures, while the June dot plot revealed a split committee with roughly half projecting at least one increase. Upcoming September FOMC deliberations, the August 12 CPI release, and Jackson Hole will provide fresh signals on whether persistent energy-driven inflation or Middle East supply shocks shift the market-implied path.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volume
$135,746Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Easing June 2026 CPI data, which slowed to 3.5% year-over-year from 4.2% in May, combined with the Fed’s July 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% despite three hawkish dissents, anchors trader consensus around zero or one 25-basis-point hike for the full year. Stable labor market conditions and solid economic growth have tempered immediate tightening pressures, while the June dot plot revealed a split committee with roughly half projecting at least one increase. Upcoming September FOMC deliberations, the August 12 CPI release, and Jackson Hole will provide fresh signals on whether persistent energy-driven inflation or Middle East supply shocks shift the market-implied path.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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