Persistent inflation pressures from the Iran conflict-driven energy price surge and a resilient labor market with unemployment near 4.3% have driven trader consensus toward the 3.75% federal funds rate as the leading implied outcome at end-2026, with 58.2% probability. Recent FOMC decisions to hold the target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% through April 2026, coupled with upward revisions in March 2026 Summary of Economic Projections and broker forecasts from BofA and Goldman Sachs pushing cuts into 2027, reflect caution over core PCE remaining above 3%. Market-implied odds align closely with CME FedWatch pricing of limited easing this year, though upcoming June data releases and any new chair transition could introduce volatility around these probabilities.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateAno ang magiging rate ng Fed sa pagtatapos ng 2026?
Ano ang magiging rate ng Fed sa pagtatapos ng 2026?
3.75% 58.2%
4.0% 17.4%
3.25% 8%
3.5% 7%
$6,523,387 Vol.
$6,523,387 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
≤1.0%
<1%
1.25
1%
1.5%
<1%
1.75%
1%
2.0%
<1%
2.25%
<1%
2.5%
1%
2.75%
1%
3.0%
4%
3.25%
8%
3.5%
7%
3.75%
58%
4.0%
17%
4.25%
4%
≥ 4.5%
1%
3.75% 58.2%
4.0% 17.4%
3.25% 8%
3.5% 7%
$6,523,387 Vol.
$6,523,387 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
≤1.0%
$216,014 Vol.
<1%
1.25
$134,363 Vol.
1%
1.5%
$134,117 Vol.
<1%
1.75%
$134,015 Vol.
1%
2.0%
$246,025 Vol.
<1%
2.25%
$70,849 Vol.
<1%
2.5%
$158,852 Vol.
1%
2.75%
$46,024 Vol.
1%
3.0%
$454,736 Vol.
4%
3.25%
$51,537 Vol.
8%
3.5%
$190,202 Vol.
7%
3.75%
$518,444 Vol.
58%
4.0%
$1,358,628 Vol.
17%
4.25%
$413,541 Vol.
4%
≥ 4.5%
$2,396,040 Vol.
1%
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Persistent inflation pressures from the Iran conflict-driven energy price surge and a resilient labor market with unemployment near 4.3% have driven trader consensus toward the 3.75% federal funds rate as the leading implied outcome at end-2026, with 58.2% probability. Recent FOMC decisions to hold the target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% through April 2026, coupled with upward revisions in March 2026 Summary of Economic Projections and broker forecasts from BofA and Goldman Sachs pushing cuts into 2027, reflect caution over core PCE remaining above 3%. Market-implied odds align closely with CME FedWatch pricing of limited easing this year, though upcoming June data releases and any new chair transition could introduce volatility around these probabilities.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Binuksan ang Market: Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET
Volume
$6,523,387Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 9, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Persistent inflation pressures from the Iran conflict-driven energy price surge and a resilient labor market with unemployment near 4.3% have driven trader consensus toward the 3.75% federal funds rate as the leading implied outcome at end-2026, with 58.2% probability. Recent FOMC decisions to hold the target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% through April 2026, coupled with upward revisions in March 2026 Summary of Economic Projections and broker forecasts from BofA and Goldman Sachs pushing cuts into 2027, reflect caution over core PCE remaining above 3%. Market-implied odds align closely with CME FedWatch pricing of limited easing this year, though upcoming June data releases and any new chair transition could introduce volatility around these probabilities.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Volume
$6,523,387Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 9, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Persistent inflation pressures from the Iran conflict-driven energy price surge and a resilient labor market with unemployment near 4.3% have driven trader consensus toward the 3.75% federal funds rate as the leading implied outcome at end-2026, with 58.2% probability. Recent FOMC decisions to hold the target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% through April 2026, coupled with upward revisions in March 2026 Summary of Economic Projections and broker forecasts from BofA and Goldman Sachs pushing cuts into 2027, reflect caution over core PCE remaining above 3%. Market-implied odds align closely with CME FedWatch pricing of limited easing this year, though upcoming June data releases and any new chair transition could introduce volatility around these probabilities.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
Mag-ingat sa mga external link.
Mag-ingat sa mga external link.
Mga Madalas na Tanong