Recent U.S. inflation data showing CPI at 3.4% year-over-year in July, combined with a softening labor market (unemployment at 4.1% and weak payrolls), supports trader expectations that the federal funds rate will hold near its current 3.50-3.75% range through year-end. The June FOMC dot plot revealed dispersion among participants, with a median projection implying limited movement and some officials favoring modest hikes amid sticky prices and geopolitical oil shocks. Upcoming September, October, and December meetings, alongside any shifts in growth or core PCE readings, remain key catalysts that could separate the closely matched probabilities for 3.75% versus 4.0% outcomes.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateAno ang magiging rate ng Fed sa pagtatapos ng 2026?
Ano ang magiging rate ng Fed sa pagtatapos ng 2026?
3.75% 39.1%
4.0% 31.1%
4.25% 12.8%
3.5% 7.5%
$6,767,926 Vol.
$6,767,926 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
≤1.0%
<1%
1.25
1%
1.5%
<1%
1.75%
<1%
2.0%
<1%
2.25%
<1%
2.5%
1%
2.75%
1%
3.0%
1%
3.25%
1%
3.5%
8%
3.75%
39%
4.0%
31%
4.25%
13%
≥ 4.5%
5%
3.75% 39.1%
4.0% 31.1%
4.25% 12.8%
3.5% 7.5%
$6,767,926 Vol.
$6,767,926 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
≤1.0%
$247,182 Vol.
<1%
1.25
$143,237 Vol.
1%
1.5%
$146,578 Vol.
<1%
1.75%
$148,473 Vol.
<1%
2.0%
$263,913 Vol.
<1%
2.25%
$87,891 Vol.
<1%
2.5%
$173,076 Vol.
1%
2.75%
$61,262 Vol.
1%
3.0%
$488,943 Vol.
1%
3.25%
$66,190 Vol.
1%
3.5%
$202,797 Vol.
8%
3.75%
$532,227 Vol.
39%
4.0%
$1,369,541 Vol.
31%
4.25%
$428,497 Vol.
13%
≥ 4.5%
$2,408,118 Vol.
5%
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Recent U.S. inflation data showing CPI at 3.4% year-over-year in July, combined with a softening labor market (unemployment at 4.1% and weak payrolls), supports trader expectations that the federal funds rate will hold near its current 3.50-3.75% range through year-end. The June FOMC dot plot revealed dispersion among participants, with a median projection implying limited movement and some officials favoring modest hikes amid sticky prices and geopolitical oil shocks. Upcoming September, October, and December meetings, alongside any shifts in growth or core PCE readings, remain key catalysts that could separate the closely matched probabilities for 3.75% versus 4.0% outcomes.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Binuksan ang Market: Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET
Volume
$6,767,926Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 9, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Recent U.S. inflation data showing CPI at 3.4% year-over-year in July, combined with a softening labor market (unemployment at 4.1% and weak payrolls), supports trader expectations that the federal funds rate will hold near its current 3.50-3.75% range through year-end. The June FOMC dot plot revealed dispersion among participants, with a median projection implying limited movement and some officials favoring modest hikes amid sticky prices and geopolitical oil shocks. Upcoming September, October, and December meetings, alongside any shifts in growth or core PCE readings, remain key catalysts that could separate the closely matched probabilities for 3.75% versus 4.0% outcomes.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Volume
$6,767,926Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 9, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent U.S. inflation data showing CPI at 3.4% year-over-year in July, combined with a softening labor market (unemployment at 4.1% and weak payrolls), supports trader expectations that the federal funds rate will hold near its current 3.50-3.75% range through year-end. The June FOMC dot plot revealed dispersion among participants, with a median projection implying limited movement and some officials favoring modest hikes amid sticky prices and geopolitical oil shocks. Upcoming September, October, and December meetings, alongside any shifts in growth or core PCE readings, remain key catalysts that could separate the closely matched probabilities for 3.75% versus 4.0% outcomes.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
Mag-ingat sa mga external link.
Mag-ingat sa mga external link.
Mga Madalas na Tanong