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Ekonomiya·Rate

What will be the next Fed rate change?

icon for What will be the next Fed rate change?
Ekonomiya·Rate

What will be the next Fed rate change?

Hike

59% tsansa
Polymarket
BAGO

Hike

59% tsansa
Polymarket
BAGO
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”. Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent inflation readings above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, including 4.1% headline PCE in May and core at 3.4%, combined with energy supply shocks tied to Middle East tensions, have anchored trader expectations for tighter policy. The July FOMC meeting’s 9-3 hold at the 3.50-3.75% range—with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point increase—plus Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks on August 28 reinforced the view that rates may need to rise to restore price stability amid solid growth and a stable labor market. CME FedWatch and prediction-market pricing now assign roughly 58% odds to a hike as the next move, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus on the data-dependent path ahead of the September 15-16 decision.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.

Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$3,932
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2028
Binuksan ang Market
Jul 14, 2026, 12:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”. Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”. Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent inflation readings above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, including 4.1% headline PCE in May and core at 3.4%, combined with energy supply shocks tied to Middle East tensions, have anchored trader expectations for tighter policy. The July FOMC meeting’s 9-3 hold at the 3.50-3.75% range—with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point increase—plus Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks on August 28 reinforced the view that rates may need to rise to restore price stability amid solid growth and a stable labor market. CME FedWatch and prediction-market pricing now assign roughly 58% odds to a hike as the next move, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus on the data-dependent path ahead of the September 15-16 decision.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.

Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$3,932
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2028
Binuksan ang Market
Jul 14, 2026, 12:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”. Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

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Ang "What will be the next Fed rate change?" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 2 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "What will be the next Fed rate change?" sa 59%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 59¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 59% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Ang "What will be the next Fed rate change?" ay isang bagong likhang market sa Polymarket, inilunsad noong Jul 14, 2026. Bilang isang maagang market, ito ang iyong pagkakataon na maging kabilang sa mga unang trader na magtakda ng odds at mag-establish ng mga paunang price signal ng market. Maaari mo ring i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para subaybayan ang volume at trading activity habang lumalaki ang market sa paglipas ng panahon.

Para mag-trade sa "What will be the next Fed rate change?," i-browse ang 2 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "What will be the next Fed rate change?" ay "What will be the next Fed rate change?" sa 59%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 59% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "What will be the next Fed rate change?" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.