Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 71.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, even after April's consumer price index surged 0.6% monthly to 3.8% annually—its hottest print since May 2023, released May 12—amid reaccelerating inflation concerns after five years above the 2% target. This reflects countervailing labor market softening, with unemployment holding at 4.3% and nonfarm payrolls rising a meager 115,000 in April, alongside Q1 GDP expansion of just 2.0% annualized, below 2.3% estimates. The FOMC maintained the fed funds target at 3.50%-3.75% through its April 28-29 meeting, prioritizing balanced risks. Key catalysts include tomorrow's April FOMC minutes and the June 15-16 policy session, where persistent inflation data could elevate hike odds further.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateOo
$1,080,312 Vol.
$1,080,312 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
Oo
$1,080,312 Vol.
$1,080,312 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 71.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, even after April's consumer price index surged 0.6% monthly to 3.8% annually—its hottest print since May 2023, released May 12—amid reaccelerating inflation concerns after five years above the 2% target. This reflects countervailing labor market softening, with unemployment holding at 4.3% and nonfarm payrolls rising a meager 115,000 in April, alongside Q1 GDP expansion of just 2.0% annualized, below 2.3% estimates. The FOMC maintained the fed funds target at 3.50%-3.75% through its April 28-29 meeting, prioritizing balanced risks. Key catalysts include tomorrow's April FOMC minutes and the June 15-16 policy session, where persistent inflation data could elevate hike odds further.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Binuksan ang Market: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volume
$1,080,312Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 9, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 71.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, even after April's consumer price index surged 0.6% monthly to 3.8% annually—its hottest print since May 2023, released May 12—amid reaccelerating inflation concerns after five years above the 2% target. This reflects countervailing labor market softening, with unemployment holding at 4.3% and nonfarm payrolls rising a meager 115,000 in April, alongside Q1 GDP expansion of just 2.0% annualized, below 2.3% estimates. The FOMC maintained the fed funds target at 3.50%-3.75% through its April 28-29 meeting, prioritizing balanced risks. Key catalysts include tomorrow's April FOMC minutes and the June 15-16 policy session, where persistent inflation data could elevate hike odds further.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,080,312Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 9, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 71.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, even after April's consumer price index surged 0.6% monthly to 3.8% annually—its hottest print since May 2023, released May 12—amid reaccelerating inflation concerns after five years above the 2% target. This reflects countervailing labor market softening, with unemployment holding at 4.3% and nonfarm payrolls rising a meager 115,000 in April, alongside Q1 GDP expansion of just 2.0% annualized, below 2.3% estimates. The FOMC maintained the fed funds target at 3.50%-3.75% through its April 28-29 meeting, prioritizing balanced risks. Key catalysts include tomorrow's April FOMC minutes and the June 15-16 policy session, where persistent inflation data could elevate hike odds further.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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