The primary driver of trader sentiment on a potential Federal Reserve rate hike remains elevated inflation readings and the July 29 FOMC decision to hold the federal funds target at 3.50%-3.75% in a 9-3 vote, with three members dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point increase. Recent weaker-than-expected jobs data and the August 12 CPI release have tempered near-term hike odds while highlighting sticky price pressures above the 2% goal, contrasting with market-implied paths from fed funds futures that assign meaningful probability to action at the September 15-16 meeting. Hawkish communications from new Chair Kevin Warsh and the divergence between official projections and trader consensus underscore uncertainty around the labor market trajectory and any further moderation in core inflation.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateFed rate hike by...?
Fed rate hike by...?
$2,196,387 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
September Meeting
31%
October Meeting
46%
$2,196,387 Vol.
September Meeting
$806,115 Vol.
31%
October Meeting
$430,272 Vol.
46%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The primary driver of trader sentiment on a potential Federal Reserve rate hike remains elevated inflation readings and the July 29 FOMC decision to hold the federal funds target at 3.50%-3.75% in a 9-3 vote, with three members dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point increase. Recent weaker-than-expected jobs data and the August 12 CPI release have tempered near-term hike odds while highlighting sticky price pressures above the 2% goal, contrasting with market-implied paths from fed funds futures that assign meaningful probability to action at the September 15-16 meeting. Hawkish communications from new Chair Kevin Warsh and the divergence between official projections and trader consensus underscore uncertainty around the labor market trajectory and any further moderation in core inflation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Binuksan ang Market: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$2,196,387Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 29, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The primary driver of trader sentiment on a potential Federal Reserve rate hike remains elevated inflation readings and the July 29 FOMC decision to hold the federal funds target at 3.50%-3.75% in a 9-3 vote, with three members dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point increase. Recent weaker-than-expected jobs data and the August 12 CPI release have tempered near-term hike odds while highlighting sticky price pressures above the 2% goal, contrasting with market-implied paths from fed funds futures that assign meaningful probability to action at the September 15-16 meeting. Hawkish communications from new Chair Kevin Warsh and the divergence between official projections and trader consensus underscore uncertainty around the labor market trajectory and any further moderation in core inflation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,196,387Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 29, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The primary driver of trader sentiment on a potential Federal Reserve rate hike remains elevated inflation readings and the July 29 FOMC decision to hold the federal funds target at 3.50%-3.75% in a 9-3 vote, with three members dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point increase. Recent weaker-than-expected jobs data and the August 12 CPI release have tempered near-term hike odds while highlighting sticky price pressures above the 2% goal, contrasting with market-implied paths from fed funds futures that assign meaningful probability to action at the September 15-16 meeting. Hawkish communications from new Chair Kevin Warsh and the divergence between official projections and trader consensus underscore uncertainty around the labor market trajectory and any further moderation in core inflation.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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