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Ekonomiya·Patakaran Sa Ekonomiya

GDP growth in 2026

icon for GDP growth in 2026
Ekonomiya·Patakaran Sa Ekonomiya

GDP growth in 2026

Jul 30

Jan 29, 2027

Jul 30

Jan 29, 2027

>2.5% 44%

<0.5% 18.2%

1.5–2.0% 16.9%

2.0–2.5% 13%

Polymarket

$28,008 Vol.

>2.5% 44%

<0.5% 18.2%

1.5–2.0% 16.9%

2.0–2.5% 13%

Polymarket

$28,008 Vol.

<0.5%

$3,879 Vol.

18%

0.5–1.0%

$15,278 Vol.

12%

1.0–1.5%

$1,535 Vol.

12%

1.5–2.0%

$1,499 Vol.

17%

2.0–2.5%

$1,757 Vol.

13%

>2.5%

$4,061 Vol.

44%

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Polymarket traders price a 39% implied probability for 2026 US real GDP growth exceeding 2.5%, reflecting the Q1 advance estimate of 2.0% annualized growth released April 30—rebounding from Q4 2025's 0.5% amid resilient consumer spending and business investment—coupled with Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model showing 3.7% for Q2 as of May 14. Moderately cooling labor markets, with April nonfarm payrolls at 115,000 and unemployment steady at 4.3%, temper enthusiasm and boost 18% odds for sub-0.5% growth amid low consumer sentiment. Consensus forecasts cluster around 2.2–2.5%, with FOMC March projections at 2.4%; watch May CPI and June FOMC for policy shifts impacting the trajectory.

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$28,008
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 29, 2027
Binuksan ang Market
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Polymarket traders price a 39% implied probability for 2026 US real GDP growth exceeding 2.5%, reflecting the Q1 advance estimate of 2.0% annualized growth released April 30—rebounding from Q4 2025's 0.5% amid resilient consumer spending and business investment—coupled with Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model showing 3.7% for Q2 as of May 14. Moderately cooling labor markets, with April nonfarm payrolls at 115,000 and unemployment steady at 4.3%, temper enthusiasm and boost 18% odds for sub-0.5% growth amid low consumer sentiment. Consensus forecasts cluster around 2.2–2.5%, with FOMC March projections at 2.4%; watch May CPI and June FOMC for policy shifts impacting the trajectory.

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$28,008
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 29, 2027
Binuksan ang Market
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "GDP growth in 2026" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 6 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay ">2.5%" sa 44%, sinusundan ng "<0.5%" sa 18%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 44¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 44% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Sa ngayon, ang "GDP growth in 2026" ay naka-generate ng $28K sa kabuuang trading volume mula nang ilunsad ang market noong Nov 12, 2025. Ang antas na ito ng trading activity ay sumasalamin sa malakas na engagement mula sa Polymarket community at tumutulong na matiyak na ang kasalukuyang odds ay sinusuportahan ng malawak na pool ng mga market participant. Maaari mong subaybayan ang live price movements at mag-trade sa anumang outcome nang direkta sa pahinang ito.

Para mag-trade sa "GDP growth in 2026," i-browse ang 6 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "GDP growth in 2026" ay ">2.5%" sa 44%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 44% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "<0.5%" sa 18%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "GDP growth in 2026" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.