Recent Q1 2026 GDP growth of 2.0% annualized, rebounding from 0.5% in Q4 2025, alongside a steady 4.3% unemployment rate and resilient nonfarm payroll gains, has anchored trader consensus against a U.S. recession by year-end at an implied 76.5% probability on Polymarket. Moderating job growth and business investment, particularly in AI-related equipment, continue to support expansion while March CPI at 3.3% year-over-year and core PCE near 3.2% reflect transitory energy pressures from earlier oil spikes now easing amid Iran ceasefire progress. The Federal Reserve’s decision to hold the fed funds target at 3.5%-3.75% signals confidence in the data-dependent path, with no Sahm Rule breach yet. Key near-term catalysts include the April CPI release and June FOMC meeting, where further labor-market cooling or inflation reacceleration could shift odds.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateUS recession sa pagtatapos ng 2026?
US recession sa pagtatapos ng 2026?
Oo
$1,455,280 Vol.
$1,455,280 Vol.
Jan 31, 2027
Oo
$1,455,280 Vol.
$1,455,280 Vol.
Jan 31, 2027
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-productRecent Q1 2026 GDP growth of 2.0% annualized, rebounding from 0.5% in Q4 2025, alongside a steady 4.3% unemployment rate and resilient nonfarm payroll gains, has anchored trader consensus against a U.S. recession by year-end at an implied 76.5% probability on Polymarket. Moderating job growth and business investment, particularly in AI-related equipment, continue to support expansion while March CPI at 3.3% year-over-year and core PCE near 3.2% reflect transitory energy pressures from earlier oil spikes now easing amid Iran ceasefire progress. The Federal Reserve’s decision to hold the fed funds target at 3.5%-3.75% signals confidence in the data-dependent path, with no Sahm Rule breach yet. Key near-term catalysts include the April CPI release and June FOMC meeting, where further labor-market cooling or inflation reacceleration could shift odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Binuksan ang Market: Sep 29, 2025, 6:26 PM ET
Volume
$1,455,280Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 31, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Sep 29, 2025, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-productRecent Q1 2026 GDP growth of 2.0% annualized, rebounding from 0.5% in Q4 2025, alongside a steady 4.3% unemployment rate and resilient nonfarm payroll gains, has anchored trader consensus against a U.S. recession by year-end at an implied 76.5% probability on Polymarket. Moderating job growth and business investment, particularly in AI-related equipment, continue to support expansion while March CPI at 3.3% year-over-year and core PCE near 3.2% reflect transitory energy pressures from earlier oil spikes now easing amid Iran ceasefire progress. The Federal Reserve’s decision to hold the fed funds target at 3.5%-3.75% signals confidence in the data-dependent path, with no Sahm Rule breach yet. Key near-term catalysts include the April CPI release and June FOMC meeting, where further labor-market cooling or inflation reacceleration could shift odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Volume
$1,455,280Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 31, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Sep 29, 2025, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Q1 2026 GDP growth of 2.0% annualized, rebounding from 0.5% in Q4 2025, alongside a steady 4.3% unemployment rate and resilient nonfarm payroll gains, has anchored trader consensus against a U.S. recession by year-end at an implied 76.5% probability on Polymarket. Moderating job growth and business investment, particularly in AI-related equipment, continue to support expansion while March CPI at 3.3% year-over-year and core PCE near 3.2% reflect transitory energy pressures from earlier oil spikes now easing amid Iran ceasefire progress. The Federal Reserve’s decision to hold the fed funds target at 3.5%-3.75% signals confidence in the data-dependent path, with no Sahm Rule breach yet. Key near-term catalysts include the April CPI release and June FOMC meeting, where further labor-market cooling or inflation reacceleration could shift odds.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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