The Bank of Mexico’s May 7 decision to lower its policy rate 25 basis points to 6.50 percent while explicitly closing its two-year easing cycle has driven the overwhelming 94.8 percent market-implied probability of no change at the June 25 meeting. Forward guidance that the current level is likely to remain appropriate, combined with April inflation easing to 4.45 percent headline and 4.26 percent core, has reinforced trader consensus that the board sees sufficient economic slack from the first-quarter GDP contraction to pause. Market-implied odds reflect this skin-in-the-game assessment of a stable rate path, with only limited scope for an unexpected hike or cut unless upcoming May inflation data or external shocks materially alter the inflation trajectory.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateBank of Mexico Decision in June
Bank of Mexico Decision in June
No change 95.1%
Decrease 5.8%
Increase 3.2%
$10,987 Vol.
$10,987 Vol.
Jun 25, 2026
Decrease
6%
No change
95%
Increase
3%
No change 95.1%
Decrease 5.8%
Increase 3.2%
$10,987 Vol.
$10,987 Vol.
Jun 25, 2026
Decrease
$649 Vol.
6%
No change
$9,185 Vol.
95%
Increase
$1,153 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's June 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for June 25, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The Bank of Mexico’s May 7 decision to lower its policy rate 25 basis points to 6.50 percent while explicitly closing its two-year easing cycle has driven the overwhelming 94.8 percent market-implied probability of no change at the June 25 meeting. Forward guidance that the current level is likely to remain appropriate, combined with April inflation easing to 4.45 percent headline and 4.26 percent core, has reinforced trader consensus that the board sees sufficient economic slack from the first-quarter GDP contraction to pause. Market-implied odds reflect this skin-in-the-game assessment of a stable rate path, with only limited scope for an unexpected hike or cut unless upcoming May inflation data or external shocks materially alter the inflation trajectory.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's June 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for June 25, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for June 25, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Binuksan ang Market: Mar 27, 2026, 4:41 PM ET
Volume
$10,987Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jun 25, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Mar 27, 2026, 4:41 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's June 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for June 25, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The Bank of Mexico’s May 7 decision to lower its policy rate 25 basis points to 6.50 percent while explicitly closing its two-year easing cycle has driven the overwhelming 94.8 percent market-implied probability of no change at the June 25 meeting. Forward guidance that the current level is likely to remain appropriate, combined with April inflation easing to 4.45 percent headline and 4.26 percent core, has reinforced trader consensus that the board sees sufficient economic slack from the first-quarter GDP contraction to pause. Market-implied odds reflect this skin-in-the-game assessment of a stable rate path, with only limited scope for an unexpected hike or cut unless upcoming May inflation data or external shocks materially alter the inflation trajectory.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's June 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for June 25, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for June 25, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$10,987Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jun 25, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Mar 27, 2026, 4:41 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bank of Mexico’s May 7 decision to lower its policy rate 25 basis points to 6.50 percent while explicitly closing its two-year easing cycle has driven the overwhelming 94.8 percent market-implied probability of no change at the June 25 meeting. Forward guidance that the current level is likely to remain appropriate, combined with April inflation easing to 4.45 percent headline and 4.26 percent core, has reinforced trader consensus that the board sees sufficient economic slack from the first-quarter GDP contraction to pause. Market-implied odds reflect this skin-in-the-game assessment of a stable rate path, with only limited scope for an unexpected hike or cut unless upcoming May inflation data or external shocks materially alter the inflation trajectory.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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