The Bank of Japan’s April 2026 decision to hold the policy rate at 0.75 percent—with three board members dissenting in favor of an immediate 25-basis-point hike—remains the dominant factor anchoring trader expectations for the July meeting. Updated quarterly forecasts raised the fiscal-2026 core inflation outlook to 2.8 percent, reflecting energy-price pressures tied to the Iran conflict, while trimming the growth projection to 0.5 percent. A mid-May Reuters poll of economists assigned a 65 percent probability of a June increase to 1.0 percent, which would likely leave the July outcome unchanged and align with the 59.5 percent market-implied odds for no action. Lingering uncertainty over global growth and wage dynamics continues to support the 40 percent probability assigned to a further 25-basis-point adjustment in July.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateNo change 59%
25 bps increase 40%
50+ bps increase 5%
50+ bps decrease 1.5%
BAGO
BAGO
Jul 31, 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
1%
No change
59%
25 bps increase
40%
50+ bps increase
5%
No change 59%
25 bps increase 40%
50+ bps increase 5%
50+ bps decrease 1.5%
BAGO
BAGO
Jul 31, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$447 Vol.
2%
25 bps decrease
$307 Vol.
1%
No change
$20 Vol.
59%
25 bps increase
$77 Vol.
40%
50+ bps increase
$61 Vol.
5%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for July is scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The Bank of Japan’s April 2026 decision to hold the policy rate at 0.75 percent—with three board members dissenting in favor of an immediate 25-basis-point hike—remains the dominant factor anchoring trader expectations for the July meeting. Updated quarterly forecasts raised the fiscal-2026 core inflation outlook to 2.8 percent, reflecting energy-price pressures tied to the Iran conflict, while trimming the growth projection to 0.5 percent. A mid-May Reuters poll of economists assigned a 65 percent probability of a June increase to 1.0 percent, which would likely leave the July outcome unchanged and align with the 59.5 percent market-implied odds for no action. Lingering uncertainty over global growth and wage dynamics continues to support the 40 percent probability assigned to a further 25-basis-point adjustment in July.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for July is scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Binuksan ang Market: Apr 28, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
Volume
$912Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jul 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Apr 28, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for July is scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The Bank of Japan’s April 2026 decision to hold the policy rate at 0.75 percent—with three board members dissenting in favor of an immediate 25-basis-point hike—remains the dominant factor anchoring trader expectations for the July meeting. Updated quarterly forecasts raised the fiscal-2026 core inflation outlook to 2.8 percent, reflecting energy-price pressures tied to the Iran conflict, while trimming the growth projection to 0.5 percent. A mid-May Reuters poll of economists assigned a 65 percent probability of a June increase to 1.0 percent, which would likely leave the July outcome unchanged and align with the 59.5 percent market-implied odds for no action. Lingering uncertainty over global growth and wage dynamics continues to support the 40 percent probability assigned to a further 25-basis-point adjustment in July.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for July is scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$912Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jul 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Apr 28, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bank of Japan’s April 2026 decision to hold the policy rate at 0.75 percent—with three board members dissenting in favor of an immediate 25-basis-point hike—remains the dominant factor anchoring trader expectations for the July meeting. Updated quarterly forecasts raised the fiscal-2026 core inflation outlook to 2.8 percent, reflecting energy-price pressures tied to the Iran conflict, while trimming the growth projection to 0.5 percent. A mid-May Reuters poll of economists assigned a 65 percent probability of a June increase to 1.0 percent, which would likely leave the July outcome unchanged and align with the 59.5 percent market-implied odds for no action. Lingering uncertainty over global growth and wage dynamics continues to support the 40 percent probability assigned to a further 25-basis-point adjustment in July.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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