Sanae Takaichi’s November 2025 remarks linking a Taiwan contingency to Japan’s potential exercise of collective self-defense triggered a sharp downturn in Japan-China ties, with Beijing demanding a retraction and freezing most high-level diplomatic contact. The two leaders last met in person at the October 2025 APEC summit in South Korea. As of early October 2026, relations remain strained amid Chinese economic measures and rhetoric framing Japan as a security concern, while Tokyo has reaffirmed its U.S. alliance through recent Trump summits and calls. Upcoming multilateral events, including the November APEC summit in Shenzhen and December G20 in Miami, offer potential sideline opportunities, yet persistent Chinese conditions for “normalization” and limited bilateral channels continue to shape trader assessments of near-term in-person engagement.