Zhang Youxia, the former first-ranked vice chairman of China’s Central Military Commission, was placed under investigation in January 2026 for suspected serious violations of discipline and law, including corruption and political issues, leading to his removal from public roles. As of mid-2026, official announcements and state media have focused on the probe and broader PLA anti-corruption efforts rather than any formal trial, verdict, or sentencing. In the Chinese system, such cases for senior military figures typically involve extended internal party discipline, expulsion proceedings, and reviews before any criminal sentencing, with timelines often extending beyond a single calendar year. No public confirmation of a prison sentence has emerged in the eight months since the investigation began, aligning with historical patterns where high-level PLA purges result in swift personnel changes but slower or non-public judicial outcomes. Traders assign a 90.5% probability to “No” because these structural and procedural factors make a completed sentencing before the end of 2026 improbable, though new official actions could still alter the timeline.