Recent diplomatic engagement between Washington and Beijing, including the late-September 2026 Trump-Xi summit, has reinforced channels for crisis communication and produced agreement to pursue a military memorandum on preventing escalation. These steps, alongside resumed senior commander contacts and parallel talks on trade and artificial intelligence, have sustained a period of managed competition without direct confrontation in the Taiwan Strait or South China Sea. Traders assign overwhelming probability to no clash before 2027 because established hotlines, shared interest in avoiding supply-chain disruption, and incremental confidence-building measures reduce miscalculation risks in the near term. Credible alternative paths remain limited but include an abrupt shift in Taiwan policy, a severe incident involving coast-guard or militia vessels, or spillover from unrelated regional crises that overwhelms existing de-escalation protocols.