Mexico's first-quarter 2026 GDP contraction of 0.8% quarter-over-quarter, released April 30, has created a negative statistical carryover into the current period, anchoring the highest trader-implied probability at 47.5% for 0.0-0.5% growth. This outcome edges out the 40.0% probability assigned to the 1.5-2.0% range because markets are pricing in subdued industrial output, softer services activity, and slower household consumption despite offsetting tailwinds from robust U.S. export demand, continued nearshoring inflows, and a resilient labor market. Banco de México's May 15 rate cut to 6.50% has modestly eased financial conditions, while the upcoming June-July FIFA World Cup is expected to lift consumption and tourism. With probabilities tightly clustered across adjacent buckets, the market reflects uncertainty over whether domestic demand can reaccelerate quickly enough to overcome the Q1 drag before mid-year data arrive.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateMexico GDP growth in Q2 2026?
Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026?
-0.5-0.0% 51%
1.5-2.0% 39%
0.5-1.0% 27%
1.0-1.5% 26%
BAGO
BAGO
Jul 30, 2026
<-0.5%
25%
-0.5-0.0%
28%
0.0-0.5%
47%
0.5-1.0%
27%
1.0-1.5%
26%
1.5-2.0%
39%
2.0-2.5%
11%
2.5%+
11%
-0.5-0.0% 51%
1.5-2.0% 39%
0.5-1.0% 27%
1.0-1.5% 26%
BAGO
BAGO
Jul 30, 2026
<-0.5%
$4 Vol.
25%
-0.5-0.0%
$24 Vol.
28%
0.0-0.5%
$11 Vol.
47%
0.5-1.0%
$6 Vol.
27%
1.0-1.5%
$2 Vol.
26%
1.5-2.0%
$0 Vol.
39%
2.0-2.5%
$0 Vol.
11%
2.5%+
$0 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Mexico's first-quarter 2026 GDP contraction of 0.8% quarter-over-quarter, released April 30, has created a negative statistical carryover into the current period, anchoring the highest trader-implied probability at 47.5% for 0.0-0.5% growth. This outcome edges out the 40.0% probability assigned to the 1.5-2.0% range because markets are pricing in subdued industrial output, softer services activity, and slower household consumption despite offsetting tailwinds from robust U.S. export demand, continued nearshoring inflows, and a resilient labor market. Banco de México's May 15 rate cut to 6.50% has modestly eased financial conditions, while the upcoming June-July FIFA World Cup is expected to lift consumption and tourism. With probabilities tightly clustered across adjacent buckets, the market reflects uncertainty over whether domestic demand can reaccelerate quickly enough to overcome the Q1 drag before mid-year data arrive.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Binuksan ang Market: May 4, 2026, 11:35 AM ET
Volume
$47Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jul 30, 2026Binuksan ang Market
May 4, 2026, 11:35 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Mexico's first-quarter 2026 GDP contraction of 0.8% quarter-over-quarter, released April 30, has created a negative statistical carryover into the current period, anchoring the highest trader-implied probability at 47.5% for 0.0-0.5% growth. This outcome edges out the 40.0% probability assigned to the 1.5-2.0% range because markets are pricing in subdued industrial output, softer services activity, and slower household consumption despite offsetting tailwinds from robust U.S. export demand, continued nearshoring inflows, and a resilient labor market. Banco de México's May 15 rate cut to 6.50% has modestly eased financial conditions, while the upcoming June-July FIFA World Cup is expected to lift consumption and tourism. With probabilities tightly clustered across adjacent buckets, the market reflects uncertainty over whether domestic demand can reaccelerate quickly enough to overcome the Q1 drag before mid-year data arrive.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$47Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jul 30, 2026Binuksan ang Market
May 4, 2026, 11:35 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Mexico's first-quarter 2026 GDP contraction of 0.8% quarter-over-quarter, released April 30, has created a negative statistical carryover into the current period, anchoring the highest trader-implied probability at 47.5% for 0.0-0.5% growth. This outcome edges out the 40.0% probability assigned to the 1.5-2.0% range because markets are pricing in subdued industrial output, softer services activity, and slower household consumption despite offsetting tailwinds from robust U.S. export demand, continued nearshoring inflows, and a resilient labor market. Banco de México's May 15 rate cut to 6.50% has modestly eased financial conditions, while the upcoming June-July FIFA World Cup is expected to lift consumption and tourism. With probabilities tightly clustered across adjacent buckets, the market reflects uncertainty over whether domestic demand can reaccelerate quickly enough to overcome the Q1 drag before mid-year data arrive.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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