Trader consensus assigns a 62.3% implied probability to Japan’s 10-year JGB yield closing 2026 at or above 3.0%, driven by the Bank of Japan’s ongoing normalization and persistent inflation. The September 2026 25-basis-point hike to a 1.25% policy rate—the highest since 1995—occurred amid core inflation near 1.7–1.9%, wage growth, and yen weakness, while the benchmark yield briefly reached 3.0% in early September before easing to around 2.99% post-decision. Record fiscal 2027 budget requests and concerns over debt-servicing costs under Prime Minister Takaichi have reinforced upward pressure, aligning market-implied odds with forecasts expecting further tightening and elevated term premiums into year-end.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateJapan 10Y Bond Yield: End of 2026
Japan 10Y Bond Yield: End of 2026
3.0%+ 62.3%
2.8-3.0% 17.1%
2.4-2.6% 6.8%
2.6-2.8% 3.3%
$30,966 Vol.
$30,966 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
<2.0%
1%
2.0-2.2%
2%
2.2-2.4%
<1%
2.4-2.6%
7%
2.6-2.8%
3%
2.8-3.0%
17%
3.0%+
62%
3.0%+ 62.3%
2.8-3.0% 17.1%
2.4-2.6% 6.8%
2.6-2.8% 3.3%
$30,966 Vol.
$30,966 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
<2.0%
$1,370 Vol.
1%
2.0-2.2%
$1,701 Vol.
2%
2.2-2.4%
$1,263 Vol.
<1%
2.4-2.6%
$2,562 Vol.
7%
2.6-2.8%
$2,556 Vol.
3%
2.8-3.0%
$8,716 Vol.
17%
3.0%+
$12,797 Vol.
62%
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.Trader consensus assigns a 62.3% implied probability to Japan’s 10-year JGB yield closing 2026 at or above 3.0%, driven by the Bank of Japan’s ongoing normalization and persistent inflation. The September 2026 25-basis-point hike to a 1.25% policy rate—the highest since 1995—occurred amid core inflation near 1.7–1.9%, wage growth, and yen weakness, while the benchmark yield briefly reached 3.0% in early September before easing to around 2.99% post-decision. Record fiscal 2027 budget requests and concerns over debt-servicing costs under Prime Minister Takaichi have reinforced upward pressure, aligning market-implied odds with forecasts expecting further tightening and elevated term premiums into year-end.
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
Binuksan ang Market: Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
Volume
$30,966Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.Trader consensus assigns a 62.3% implied probability to Japan’s 10-year JGB yield closing 2026 at or above 3.0%, driven by the Bank of Japan’s ongoing normalization and persistent inflation. The September 2026 25-basis-point hike to a 1.25% policy rate—the highest since 1995—occurred amid core inflation near 1.7–1.9%, wage growth, and yen weakness, while the benchmark yield briefly reached 3.0% in early September before easing to around 2.99% post-decision. Record fiscal 2027 budget requests and concerns over debt-servicing costs under Prime Minister Takaichi have reinforced upward pressure, aligning market-implied odds with forecasts expecting further tightening and elevated term premiums into year-end.
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
Volume
$30,966Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus assigns a 62.3% implied probability to Japan’s 10-year JGB yield closing 2026 at or above 3.0%, driven by the Bank of Japan’s ongoing normalization and persistent inflation. The September 2026 25-basis-point hike to a 1.25% policy rate—the highest since 1995—occurred amid core inflation near 1.7–1.9%, wage growth, and yen weakness, while the benchmark yield briefly reached 3.0% in early September before easing to around 2.99% post-decision. Record fiscal 2027 budget requests and concerns over debt-servicing costs under Prime Minister Takaichi have reinforced upward pressure, aligning market-implied odds with forecasts expecting further tightening and elevated term premiums into year-end.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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