Recent energy price surges driven by Middle East supply disruptions have lifted Canada’s headline CPI to 3.1% in September 2026, with the Bank of Canada now projecting a 2.9% average for the full year after an upward revision from its July forecast. Persistently elevated oil and refinery margins are expected to push the rate toward 3.5% by year-end before moderating, keeping the market-implied 3.0-3.4% range the consensus outcome at 38.9%. Core measures remain near 2%, yet businesses anticipate greater cost pass-through amid higher import prices and counter-tariffs, supporting the secondary 3.5-3.9% probability. The Bank’s October 25-basis-point hike to 2.5% underscores reduced scope for accommodation, while the November 16 CPI release and ongoing trade uncertainty represent key near-term catalysts.