Saudi Arabia continues to condition any normalization with Israel on meaningful progress toward Palestinian statehood, a stance reinforced by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s public criticism of Israeli actions in Gaza and the West Bank. Domestic surveys show overwhelming Saudi public opposition, with 99 percent viewing ties negatively as of late 2025, limiting Riyadh’s flexibility ahead of potential leadership transitions. No formal diplomatic breakthroughs or U.S.-brokered security agreements have materialized since the post-October 2023 impasse, and recent regional statements from Saudi officials tie resumption of talks to a two-state framework that remains stalled. Traders therefore price an 83 percent chance that no normalization occurs before 2027, reflecting the absence of catalysts that could overcome these entrenched political and public constraints in the remaining months.