Reza Pahlavi has remained in exile since 1979 and has not entered Iran as of mid-August 2026. Trader consensus assigns low probability to a visit by December 31, 2026, reflecting the Islamic Republic’s continued institutional control following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s death and subsequent security operations that contained 2025–2026 protests. Pahlavi has publicly affirmed readiness to return as soon as conditions permit—even prior to full regime change—to support defections and a transitional process, while conducting meetings with U.S. and European officials and diaspora events. Key barriers include security risks, absence of verified safe passage or domestic infrastructure for his entry, and fragmented opposition coordination. Any escalation in internal instability, coordinated uprisings, or negotiated openings within the resolution window could still shift assessments, though such paths remain constrained by current conditions.