Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran's last shah, has remained outside the country since 1979 amid the Islamic Republic's continued hold on power. The February 2026 death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei sparked renewed opposition activity and international discussion of transition scenarios, prompting Pahlavi's spring European tour and public statements about returning as soon as conditions permit—even before full regime change. Traders assign low implied probabilities to entry by late 2026 dates because Iranian security forces retain territorial control, defection signals from regime elements remain limited, and no verified safe corridor or localized liberated area has emerged. Scheduled events such as further diaspora protests or diplomatic meetings could influence sentiment, but structural barriers including arrest risks and the absence of broad internal coordination continue to constrain near-term movement.