Reza Pahlavi remains in exile as the most prominent opposition figure advocating a secular democratic transition in Iran. Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes that eliminated Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in February 2026 created a leadership vacuum and sparked renewed protests, yet the Islamic Republic's core institutions, including the Revolutionary Guards, have maintained territorial control and prevented any opposition figures from returning. Pahlavi has used public appearances, including at CPAC in March 2026, to call for complete regime removal and outline a transitional framework, while launching initiatives like the Iran Prosperity Project to prepare governance structures. Trader sentiment reflects these barriers, with low implied probabilities for entry by mid-2026 tied to the absence of verified regime collapse or formal invitation from successor authorities. Scheduled diplomatic negotiations and potential further unrest through the summer could shift conditions, though structural requirements for physical return continue to limit near-term feasibility.