Recent polling averages place Likud in the low-to-mid 20s Knesset seats, with individual surveys ranging from 18 to 28 amid sharp differences across pollsters and persistent bloc totals below the 61-seat majority threshold. Netanyahu’s right-religious coalition hovers near 49–54 seats while the opposing Zionist bloc remains comparably close, reflecting hardened divisions since October 2023 and limited movement from campaign events. Volatility stems from the 3.25% electoral threshold, where smaller parties’ performance can shift four or more mandates, and from opposition fragmentation that traders view as a modest floor for Likud. Upcoming final-week surveys and turnout among overseas voters could still alter seat projections before the October 27 vote.