Flavio Bolsonaro holds a commanding 93.5% implied probability of finishing first in Mato Grosso's first-round vote on October 4, 2026, reflecting the state's consistent conservative leanings and strong historical backing for the Liberal Party (PL) and Bolsonaro-aligned candidates. Recent confirmation of his PL nomination in July, selection of a running mate in early August, and his father's endorsement have reinforced this positioning among rural and agricultural voters who prioritize issues such as agribusiness policy and law-and-order platforms. National polls show a tighter overall race against incumbent Lula, yet Mato Grosso's demographics and past electoral patterns sustain trader consensus on limited competition from candidates like Ronaldo Caiado or Romeu Zema. Late developments such as regional scandals, vote splitting among right-leaning contenders, or shifts in turnout could still alter the outcome before election day.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateFlavio Bolsonaro 94%
Lula 3.1%
Clariana Barao <1%
Hertz Dias <1%
BAGO
BAGO
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
94%
Lula
3%
Clariana Barao
1%
Hertz Dias
1%
Pablo Marçal
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
1%
Samara
1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
1%
Renan Santos
1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Zema
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 94%
Lula 3.1%
Clariana Barao <1%
Hertz Dias <1%
BAGO
BAGO
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
$2,651 Vol.
94%
Lula
$1,118 Vol.
3%
Clariana Barao
$278 Vol.
1%
Hertz Dias
$274 Vol.
1%
Pablo Marçal
$327 Vol.
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$332 Vol.
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$291 Vol.
1%
Samara
$365 Vol.
1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$284 Vol.
1%
Renan Santos
$248 Vol.
1%
Edmilson Costa
$346 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$316 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$332 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Mato Grosso, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flavio Bolsonaro holds a commanding 93.5% implied probability of finishing first in Mato Grosso's first-round vote on October 4, 2026, reflecting the state's consistent conservative leanings and strong historical backing for the Liberal Party (PL) and Bolsonaro-aligned candidates. Recent confirmation of his PL nomination in July, selection of a running mate in early August, and his father's endorsement have reinforced this positioning among rural and agricultural voters who prioritize issues such as agribusiness policy and law-and-order platforms. National polls show a tighter overall race against incumbent Lula, yet Mato Grosso's demographics and past electoral patterns sustain trader consensus on limited competition from candidates like Ronaldo Caiado or Romeu Zema. Late developments such as regional scandals, vote splitting among right-leaning contenders, or shifts in turnout could still alter the outcome before election day.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Mato Grosso, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Binuksan ang Market: Aug 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ET
Volume
$7,162Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 4, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Mato Grosso, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flavio Bolsonaro holds a commanding 93.5% implied probability of finishing first in Mato Grosso's first-round vote on October 4, 2026, reflecting the state's consistent conservative leanings and strong historical backing for the Liberal Party (PL) and Bolsonaro-aligned candidates. Recent confirmation of his PL nomination in July, selection of a running mate in early August, and his father's endorsement have reinforced this positioning among rural and agricultural voters who prioritize issues such as agribusiness policy and law-and-order platforms. National polls show a tighter overall race against incumbent Lula, yet Mato Grosso's demographics and past electoral patterns sustain trader consensus on limited competition from candidates like Ronaldo Caiado or Romeu Zema. Late developments such as regional scandals, vote splitting among right-leaning contenders, or shifts in turnout could still alter the outcome before election day.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Mato Grosso, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$7,162Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 4, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Flavio Bolsonaro holds a commanding 93.5% implied probability of finishing first in Mato Grosso's first-round vote on October 4, 2026, reflecting the state's consistent conservative leanings and strong historical backing for the Liberal Party (PL) and Bolsonaro-aligned candidates. Recent confirmation of his PL nomination in July, selection of a running mate in early August, and his father's endorsement have reinforced this positioning among rural and agricultural voters who prioritize issues such as agribusiness policy and law-and-order platforms. National polls show a tighter overall race against incumbent Lula, yet Mato Grosso's demographics and past electoral patterns sustain trader consensus on limited competition from candidates like Ronaldo Caiado or Romeu Zema. Late developments such as regional scandals, vote splitting among right-leaning contenders, or shifts in turnout could still alter the outcome before election day.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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