Lula holds overwhelming trader consensus for first place in Sergipe in the October 4 first round, driven by the state's Northeast location and consistent historical backing for Workers' Party candidates in presidential contests. National polling averages place Lula at roughly 40% support ahead of Flavio Bolsonaro near 33%, with lower shares for Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Romeu Zema, patterns that amplify in PT strongholds. The campaign's formal start in mid-August and Lula's incumbency advantage reinforce this positioning, while the absence of major state-specific disruptions or shifts in voter blocs sustains the market's implied probability. Traders price regional electoral math and base rates above national volatility at this stage.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateLula 90%
Ronaldo Caiado 8%
Flavio Bolsonaro 3.9%
Edmilson Costa 3.9%
BAGO
BAGO
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
90%
Ronaldo Caiado
8%
Flavio Bolsonaro
4%
Edmilson Costa
4%
Escritor Augusto Cury
4%
Hertz Dias
4%
Renan Santos
4%
Samara
4%
Pablo Marçal
4%
Rui Costa Pimenta
4%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
4%
Zema
4%
Clariana Barao
1%
Lula 90%
Ronaldo Caiado 8%
Flavio Bolsonaro 3.9%
Edmilson Costa 3.9%
BAGO
BAGO
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$474 Vol.
90%
Ronaldo Caiado
$136 Vol.
8%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$136 Vol.
4%
Edmilson Costa
$136 Vol.
4%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$136 Vol.
4%
Hertz Dias
$136 Vol.
4%
Renan Santos
$136 Vol.
4%
Samara
$136 Vol.
4%
Pablo Marçal
$136 Vol.
4%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$136 Vol.
4%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$136 Vol.
4%
Zema
$136 Vol.
4%
Clariana Barao
$130 Vol.
1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Sergipe, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula holds overwhelming trader consensus for first place in Sergipe in the October 4 first round, driven by the state's Northeast location and consistent historical backing for Workers' Party candidates in presidential contests. National polling averages place Lula at roughly 40% support ahead of Flavio Bolsonaro near 33%, with lower shares for Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Romeu Zema, patterns that amplify in PT strongholds. The campaign's formal start in mid-August and Lula's incumbency advantage reinforce this positioning, while the absence of major state-specific disruptions or shifts in voter blocs sustains the market's implied probability. Traders price regional electoral math and base rates above national volatility at this stage.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Sergipe, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Binuksan ang Market: Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ET
Volume
$2,101Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 4, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Sergipe, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula holds overwhelming trader consensus for first place in Sergipe in the October 4 first round, driven by the state's Northeast location and consistent historical backing for Workers' Party candidates in presidential contests. National polling averages place Lula at roughly 40% support ahead of Flavio Bolsonaro near 33%, with lower shares for Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Romeu Zema, patterns that amplify in PT strongholds. The campaign's formal start in mid-August and Lula's incumbency advantage reinforce this positioning, while the absence of major state-specific disruptions or shifts in voter blocs sustains the market's implied probability. Traders price regional electoral math and base rates above national volatility at this stage.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Sergipe, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$2,101Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 4, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula holds overwhelming trader consensus for first place in Sergipe in the October 4 first round, driven by the state's Northeast location and consistent historical backing for Workers' Party candidates in presidential contests. National polling averages place Lula at roughly 40% support ahead of Flavio Bolsonaro near 33%, with lower shares for Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Romeu Zema, patterns that amplify in PT strongholds. The campaign's formal start in mid-August and Lula's incumbency advantage reinforce this positioning, while the absence of major state-specific disruptions or shifts in voter blocs sustains the market's implied probability. Traders price regional electoral math and base rates above national volatility at this stage.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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