**Trader consensus in this Ceará-specific first-round market reflects a highly fragmented field and regional uncertainty, with Lula holding a modest edge at 48.5% implied probability amid national polling leads of roughly 38-42% against Flávio Bolsonaro at 28-35%.** Ceará’s Northeast electorate has historically favored Workers’ Party candidates, yet the August 15 candidate registration deadline and the official campaign launch have not yet produced decisive separation. Flávio Bolsonaro, Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, and Augusto Cury remain in single digits nationally, while local factors such as Eduardo Girão’s vice-presidential slot and Ciro Gomes’ gubernatorial bid could influence turnout or split opposition votes. Recent Quaest and AtlasIntel surveys show a slight narrowing of Lula’s lead and elevated undecided shares, keeping multiple outcomes competitive through October 4. Late shifts in turnout, regional endorsements, or economic messaging could still reorder the state result before first-round voting.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateLula 49%
Rui Costa Pimenta 43%
Edmilson Costa 43%
Samara 43%
BAGO
BAGO
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
49%
Rui Costa Pimenta
43%
Edmilson Costa
43%
Samara
43%
Escritor Augusto Cury
42%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
42%
Clariana Barao
42%
Hertz Dias
42%
Zema
41%
Flavio Bolsonaro
41%
Pablo Marçal
23%
Ronaldo Caiado
23%
Renan Santos
23%
Lula 49%
Rui Costa Pimenta 43%
Edmilson Costa 43%
Samara 43%
BAGO
BAGO
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$170 Vol.
49%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$52 Vol.
43%
Edmilson Costa
$102 Vol.
43%
Samara
$102 Vol.
43%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$52 Vol.
42%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$52 Vol.
42%
Clariana Barao
$52 Vol.
42%
Hertz Dias
$52 Vol.
42%
Zema
$102 Vol.
41%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$102 Vol.
41%
Pablo Marçal
$52 Vol.
23%
Ronaldo Caiado
$52 Vol.
23%
Renan Santos
$52 Vol.
23%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Ceará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Ceará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Ceará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).**Trader consensus in this Ceará-specific first-round market reflects a highly fragmented field and regional uncertainty, with Lula holding a modest edge at 48.5% implied probability amid national polling leads of roughly 38-42% against Flávio Bolsonaro at 28-35%.** Ceará’s Northeast electorate has historically favored Workers’ Party candidates, yet the August 15 candidate registration deadline and the official campaign launch have not yet produced decisive separation. Flávio Bolsonaro, Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, and Augusto Cury remain in single digits nationally, while local factors such as Eduardo Girão’s vice-presidential slot and Ciro Gomes’ gubernatorial bid could influence turnout or split opposition votes. Recent Quaest and AtlasIntel surveys show a slight narrowing of Lula’s lead and elevated undecided shares, keeping multiple outcomes competitive through October 4. Late shifts in turnout, regional endorsements, or economic messaging could still reorder the state result before first-round voting.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Ceará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Ceará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Ceará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Ceará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Ceará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Binuksan ang Market: Aug 17, 2026, 6:26 AM ET
Volume
$993Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 4, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 17, 2026, 6:26 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Ceará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Ceará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Ceará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).**Trader consensus in this Ceará-specific first-round market reflects a highly fragmented field and regional uncertainty, with Lula holding a modest edge at 48.5% implied probability amid national polling leads of roughly 38-42% against Flávio Bolsonaro at 28-35%.** Ceará’s Northeast electorate has historically favored Workers’ Party candidates, yet the August 15 candidate registration deadline and the official campaign launch have not yet produced decisive separation. Flávio Bolsonaro, Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, and Augusto Cury remain in single digits nationally, while local factors such as Eduardo Girão’s vice-presidential slot and Ciro Gomes’ gubernatorial bid could influence turnout or split opposition votes. Recent Quaest and AtlasIntel surveys show a slight narrowing of Lula’s lead and elevated undecided shares, keeping multiple outcomes competitive through October 4. Late shifts in turnout, regional endorsements, or economic messaging could still reorder the state result before first-round voting.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Ceará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Ceará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Ceará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Ceará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Ceará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$993Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 4, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 17, 2026, 6:26 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus in this Ceará-specific first-round market reflects a highly fragmented field and regional uncertainty, with Lula holding a modest edge at 48.5% implied probability amid national polling leads of roughly 38-42% against Flávio Bolsonaro at 28-35%.** Ceará’s Northeast electorate has historically favored Workers’ Party candidates, yet the August 15 candidate registration deadline and the official campaign launch have not yet produced decisive separation. Flávio Bolsonaro, Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, and Augusto Cury remain in single digits nationally, while local factors such as Eduardo Girão’s vice-presidential slot and Ciro Gomes’ gubernatorial bid could influence turnout or split opposition votes. Recent Quaest and AtlasIntel surveys show a slight narrowing of Lula’s lead and elevated undecided shares, keeping multiple outcomes competitive through October 4. Late shifts in turnout, regional endorsements, or economic messaging could still reorder the state result before first-round voting.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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