Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro lead national polling for Brazil’s October 4, 2026 first round at roughly 41% and 33% respectively, with other declared candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos polling in single digits. This distribution under Brazil’s two-round system makes their advancement the consensus outcome priced by traders. Lula benefits from incumbency advantages and recent targeted economic measures, while Flávio consolidated much of the right-wing vote despite earlier mid-year setbacks tied to family disputes and audio leaks. A fragmented field and limited momentum for alternatives have kept the implied probabilities for these two candidates well above 85% ahead of the vote.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateWhich candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?
Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?
$475,192 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
97%
Flavio Bolsonaro
90%
Renan Santos
7%
Romeu Zema
2%
Michelle Bolsonaro
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Tarcisio de Frietas
1%
Jair Bolsonaro
1%
Fernando Haddad
1%
$475,192 Vol.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
$218,672 Vol.
97%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$47,067 Vol.
90%
Renan Santos
$11,342 Vol.
7%
Romeu Zema
$610 Vol.
2%
Michelle Bolsonaro
$34,442 Vol.
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$698 Vol.
1%
Tarcisio de Frietas
$81,768 Vol.
1%
Jair Bolsonaro
$15,629 Vol.
1%
Fernando Haddad
$64,965 Vol.
1%
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro lead national polling for Brazil’s October 4, 2026 first round at roughly 41% and 33% respectively, with other declared candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos polling in single digits. This distribution under Brazil’s two-round system makes their advancement the consensus outcome priced by traders. Lula benefits from incumbency advantages and recent targeted economic measures, while Flávio consolidated much of the right-wing vote despite earlier mid-year setbacks tied to family disputes and audio leaks. A fragmented field and limited momentum for alternatives have kept the implied probabilities for these two candidates well above 85% ahead of the vote.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Binuksan ang Market: Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ET
Volume
$475,192Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 4, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro lead national polling for Brazil’s October 4, 2026 first round at roughly 41% and 33% respectively, with other declared candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos polling in single digits. This distribution under Brazil’s two-round system makes their advancement the consensus outcome priced by traders. Lula benefits from incumbency advantages and recent targeted economic measures, while Flávio consolidated much of the right-wing vote despite earlier mid-year setbacks tied to family disputes and audio leaks. A fragmented field and limited momentum for alternatives have kept the implied probabilities for these two candidates well above 85% ahead of the vote.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$475,192Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 4, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro lead national polling for Brazil’s October 4, 2026 first round at roughly 41% and 33% respectively, with other declared candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos polling in single digits. This distribution under Brazil’s two-round system makes their advancement the consensus outcome priced by traders. Lula benefits from incumbency advantages and recent targeted economic measures, while Flávio consolidated much of the right-wing vote despite earlier mid-year setbacks tied to family disputes and audio leaks. A fragmented field and limited momentum for alternatives have kept the implied probabilities for these two candidates well above 85% ahead of the vote.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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