Jair Bolsonaro’s court-imposed ineligibility and imprisonment have consolidated right-wing support behind his son, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, the Liberal Party nominee. Recent first-round polls show Lula da Silva leading at 38–42 percent while Flávio trails at 28–35 percent, well ahead of Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema, who remain in single digits amid a fragmented field. Minor setbacks from audio leaks and family tensions in mid-2026 produced only temporary dips before reconciliation. Traders therefore assign Flávio an overwhelming implied probability of securing second place on October 4, reflecting the structural absence of a stronger opposition alternative.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateFlávio Bolsonaro 87%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 6.7%
Renan Santos 5.4%
Ronaldo Caiado <1%
$4,823,050 Vol.
$4,823,050 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Flávio Bolsonaro
87%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
7%
Renan Santos
5%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Camilo Santana
<1%
Fernando Haddad
<1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
<1%
Romeu Zema
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Jair Bolsonaro
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Geraldo Alckmin
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
Helder Barbalho
<1%
Tereza Cristina
<1%
Flávio Bolsonaro 87%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 6.7%
Renan Santos 5.4%
Ronaldo Caiado <1%
$4,823,050 Vol.
$4,823,050 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Flávio Bolsonaro
$285,956 Vol.
87%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
$263,793 Vol.
7%
Renan Santos
$1,115,470 Vol.
5%
Ronaldo Caiado
$363,525 Vol.
1%
Camilo Santana
$120,835 Vol.
<1%
Fernando Haddad
$712,252 Vol.
<1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
$144,426 Vol.
<1%
Romeu Zema
$312,827 Vol.
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
$109,372 Vol.
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
$70,228 Vol.
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
$207,106 Vol.
<1%
Jair Bolsonaro
$138,456 Vol.
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
$681,218 Vol.
<1%
Geraldo Alckmin
$162,025 Vol.
<1%
Eduardo Leite
$79,085 Vol.
<1%
Helder Barbalho
$20,972 Vol.
<1%
Tereza Cristina
$35,504 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Jair Bolsonaro’s court-imposed ineligibility and imprisonment have consolidated right-wing support behind his son, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, the Liberal Party nominee. Recent first-round polls show Lula da Silva leading at 38–42 percent while Flávio trails at 28–35 percent, well ahead of Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema, who remain in single digits amid a fragmented field. Minor setbacks from audio leaks and family tensions in mid-2026 produced only temporary dips before reconciliation. Traders therefore assign Flávio an overwhelming implied probability of securing second place on October 4, reflecting the structural absence of a stronger opposition alternative.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Binuksan ang Market: Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Volume
$4,823,050Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 4, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Jair Bolsonaro’s court-imposed ineligibility and imprisonment have consolidated right-wing support behind his son, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, the Liberal Party nominee. Recent first-round polls show Lula da Silva leading at 38–42 percent while Flávio trails at 28–35 percent, well ahead of Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema, who remain in single digits amid a fragmented field. Minor setbacks from audio leaks and family tensions in mid-2026 produced only temporary dips before reconciliation. Traders therefore assign Flávio an overwhelming implied probability of securing second place on October 4, reflecting the structural absence of a stronger opposition alternative.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$4,823,050Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 4, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Jair Bolsonaro’s court-imposed ineligibility and imprisonment have consolidated right-wing support behind his son, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, the Liberal Party nominee. Recent first-round polls show Lula da Silva leading at 38–42 percent while Flávio trails at 28–35 percent, well ahead of Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema, who remain in single digits amid a fragmented field. Minor setbacks from audio leaks and family tensions in mid-2026 produced only temporary dips before reconciliation. Traders therefore assign Flávio an overwhelming implied probability of securing second place on October 4, reflecting the structural absence of a stronger opposition alternative.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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