Recent polling from mid-September 2026 shows incumbent President Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by narrow margins in first-round scenarios, typically 2 to 5 percentage points, with both candidates in the mid-to-high 30s or low 40s and no one approaching a majority. This positioning aligns with trader emphasis on sub-5% victory margins for either frontrunner, reflecting Brazil's polarized electorate, Lula's incumbency advantages including recent Bolsa Família adjustments, and Flávio Bolsonaro's consolidation of right-wing support as the Liberal Party nominee. Multiple surveys indicate the race remains within margins of error, supporting the elevated probabilities for tight outcomes ahead of the October 4 vote, after which a runoff would follow if needed.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateBrazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Lula da Silva <5% 51%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 27.5%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 12%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10% 10.0%
$522,885 Vol.
$522,885 Vol.
Oct 3, 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
1%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
3%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
12%
Lula da Silva <5%
51%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
1%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
10%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
28%
Renan Santos Victory
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas Victory
<1%
Ratinho Júnior Victory
<1%
Other
<1%
Lula da Silva <5% 51%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 27.5%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 12%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10% 10.0%
$522,885 Vol.
$522,885 Vol.
Oct 3, 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
$21,705 Vol.
1%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
$49,476 Vol.
3%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
$52,047 Vol.
12%
Lula da Silva <5%
$53,333 Vol.
51%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
$28,925 Vol.
1%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
$29,062 Vol.
10%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
$35,355 Vol.
28%
Renan Santos Victory
$220,225 Vol.
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas Victory
$10,653 Vol.
<1%
Ratinho Júnior Victory
$10,076 Vol.
<1%
Other
$12,026 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from mid-September 2026 shows incumbent President Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by narrow margins in first-round scenarios, typically 2 to 5 percentage points, with both candidates in the mid-to-high 30s or low 40s and no one approaching a majority. This positioning aligns with trader emphasis on sub-5% victory margins for either frontrunner, reflecting Brazil's polarized electorate, Lula's incumbency advantages including recent Bolsa Família adjustments, and Flávio Bolsonaro's consolidation of right-wing support as the Liberal Party nominee. Multiple surveys indicate the race remains within margins of error, supporting the elevated probabilities for tight outcomes ahead of the October 4 vote, after which a runoff would follow if needed.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Binuksan ang Market: Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
Volume
$522,885Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 4, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from mid-September 2026 shows incumbent President Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by narrow margins in first-round scenarios, typically 2 to 5 percentage points, with both candidates in the mid-to-high 30s or low 40s and no one approaching a majority. This positioning aligns with trader emphasis on sub-5% victory margins for either frontrunner, reflecting Brazil's polarized electorate, Lula's incumbency advantages including recent Bolsa Família adjustments, and Flávio Bolsonaro's consolidation of right-wing support as the Liberal Party nominee. Multiple surveys indicate the race remains within margins of error, supporting the elevated probabilities for tight outcomes ahead of the October 4 vote, after which a runoff would follow if needed.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$522,885Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 4, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polling from mid-September 2026 shows incumbent President Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by narrow margins in first-round scenarios, typically 2 to 5 percentage points, with both candidates in the mid-to-high 30s or low 40s and no one approaching a majority. This positioning aligns with trader emphasis on sub-5% victory margins for either frontrunner, reflecting Brazil's polarized electorate, Lula's incumbency advantages including recent Bolsa Família adjustments, and Flávio Bolsonaro's consolidation of right-wing support as the Liberal Party nominee. Multiple surveys indicate the race remains within margins of error, supporting the elevated probabilities for tight outcomes ahead of the October 4 vote, after which a runoff would follow if needed.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateKaugnay
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win 39% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
88%
Will Lula win 44% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
44%
Will Renan Santos win between 2% and 4% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
40%
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