Recent polling has driven trader consensus toward Nithya Raman in the November 3 runoff, with a late-September UC Berkeley IGS survey showing her at 39% support among likely voters compared to incumbent Karen Bass at 28% and one-third undecided. Bass enters the final stretch facing 63% unfavorable ratings tied to persistent city challenges including rising homelessness counts and recovery from major wildfires, while Raman benefits from strong backing among younger voters and the Democratic Socialists of America endorsement. Mail ballots begin distribution on October 1 in a race featuring the first mayoral runoff for an incumbent since 2005, leaving room for shifts among undecided primary voters who previously supported eliminated candidate Spencer Pratt.