The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience following the February-March 2026 U.S.-Israeli military campaign and the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei underpins traders' near-certain assessment that it will not fall by May 31. Successor Mojtaba Khamenei assumed power with renewed pledges of allegiance from military, security, and clerical institutions, while officials have focused on rebuilding internal security forces and managing economic pressures that could spark unrest. Preparations by the Supreme National Security Council and calls for wartime-style management reflect institutional continuity rather than fragility. With only two weeks remaining, the absence of active mass protests, military defections, or leadership vacuums reinforces this outlook, though an unforeseen escalation in external strikes or sudden domestic upheaval could theoretically alter the timeline.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateBabagsak ba ang rehimeng Iran sa Mayo 31?
Babagsak ba ang rehimeng Iran sa Mayo 31?
Oo
$20,250,880 Vol.
$20,250,880 Vol.
May 31, 2026
Oo
$20,250,880 Vol.
$20,250,880 Vol.
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience following the February-March 2026 U.S.-Israeli military campaign and the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei underpins traders' near-certain assessment that it will not fall by May 31. Successor Mojtaba Khamenei assumed power with renewed pledges of allegiance from military, security, and clerical institutions, while officials have focused on rebuilding internal security forces and managing economic pressures that could spark unrest. Preparations by the Supreme National Security Council and calls for wartime-style management reflect institutional continuity rather than fragility. With only two weeks remaining, the absence of active mass protests, military defections, or leadership vacuums reinforces this outlook, though an unforeseen escalation in external strikes or sudden domestic upheaval could theoretically alter the timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Binuksan ang Market: Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ET
Volume
$20,250,880Petsa ng Pagtatapos
May 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience following the February-March 2026 U.S.-Israeli military campaign and the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei underpins traders' near-certain assessment that it will not fall by May 31. Successor Mojtaba Khamenei assumed power with renewed pledges of allegiance from military, security, and clerical institutions, while officials have focused on rebuilding internal security forces and managing economic pressures that could spark unrest. Preparations by the Supreme National Security Council and calls for wartime-style management reflect institutional continuity rather than fragility. With only two weeks remaining, the absence of active mass protests, military defections, or leadership vacuums reinforces this outlook, though an unforeseen escalation in external strikes or sudden domestic upheaval could theoretically alter the timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$20,251,215Petsa ng Pagtatapos
May 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience following the February-March 2026 U.S.-Israeli military campaign and the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei underpins traders' near-certain assessment that it will not fall by May 31. Successor Mojtaba Khamenei assumed power with renewed pledges of allegiance from military, security, and clerical institutions, while officials have focused on rebuilding internal security forces and managing economic pressures that could spark unrest. Preparations by the Supreme National Security Council and calls for wartime-style management reflect institutional continuity rather than fragility. With only two weeks remaining, the absence of active mass protests, military defections, or leadership vacuums reinforces this outlook, though an unforeseen escalation in external strikes or sudden domestic upheaval could theoretically alter the timeline.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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