Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment as Iran’s supreme leader in March 2026, following his father’s assassination amid U.S.-Israeli strikes, has coincided with persistent uncertainty over his health, location, and effective control. Only written statements attributed to him have surfaced since, with no verified public appearances, audio, or video, prompting speculation about possible injury or treatment in Qom. As the new head of state during active regional conflict, any departure from Iran would carry substantial security and political risks, though analysts note that a confirmed medical evacuation abroad could still alter the timeline. Traders weigh these constraints against the absence of verified exit reports in recent months, focusing on whether wartime leadership demands or internal succession pressures will force an early move before mid-2026 deadlines.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update$1,123,215 Vol.
May 31, 2026
May 31
1%
June 30
3%
$1,123,215 Vol.
May 31
$101,958 Vol.
1%
June 30
$49,647 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment as Iran’s supreme leader in March 2026, following his father’s assassination amid U.S.-Israeli strikes, has coincided with persistent uncertainty over his health, location, and effective control. Only written statements attributed to him have surfaced since, with no verified public appearances, audio, or video, prompting speculation about possible injury or treatment in Qom. As the new head of state during active regional conflict, any departure from Iran would carry substantial security and political risks, though analysts note that a confirmed medical evacuation abroad could still alter the timeline. Traders weigh these constraints against the absence of verified exit reports in recent months, focusing on whether wartime leadership demands or internal succession pressures will force an early move before mid-2026 deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Binuksan ang Market: Mar 24, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
Volume
$1,123,215Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Apr 30, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Mar 24, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment as Iran’s supreme leader in March 2026, following his father’s assassination amid U.S.-Israeli strikes, has coincided with persistent uncertainty over his health, location, and effective control. Only written statements attributed to him have surfaced since, with no verified public appearances, audio, or video, prompting speculation about possible injury or treatment in Qom. As the new head of state during active regional conflict, any departure from Iran would carry substantial security and political risks, though analysts note that a confirmed medical evacuation abroad could still alter the timeline. Traders weigh these constraints against the absence of verified exit reports in recent months, focusing on whether wartime leadership demands or internal succession pressures will force an early move before mid-2026 deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,123,215Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Apr 30, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Mar 24, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment as Iran’s supreme leader in March 2026, following his father’s assassination amid U.S.-Israeli strikes, has coincided with persistent uncertainty over his health, location, and effective control. Only written statements attributed to him have surfaced since, with no verified public appearances, audio, or video, prompting speculation about possible injury or treatment in Qom. As the new head of state during active regional conflict, any departure from Iran would carry substantial security and political risks, though analysts note that a confirmed medical evacuation abroad could still alter the timeline. Traders weigh these constraints against the absence of verified exit reports in recent months, focusing on whether wartime leadership demands or internal succession pressures will force an early move before mid-2026 deadlines.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
Mag-ingat sa mga external link.
Mag-ingat sa mga external link.
Mga Madalas na Tanong