The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience after leadership transition following the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei underpins the 98.5% trader consensus against collapse by September 30. Coordinated security operations contained nationwide protests sparked by economic hardship and currency pressures in late 2025 and early 2026, with no verified large-scale defections among Revolutionary Guards or regular forces. A June 2026 memorandum of understanding halted major hostilities with the United States and Israel, enabling the regime to reorganize command structures, manage factional tensions, and maintain institutional cohesion amid ongoing sanctions and inflation. Recent Strait of Hormuz frictions have not escalated into regime-threatening unrest. Sudden major military escalation, elite fractures, or uncontainable protest waves remain low-probability events that could still shift outcomes before the resolution date.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateWill the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
2% tsansa
$1,620,742 Vol.
$1,620,742 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
2% tsansa
$1,620,742 Vol.
$1,620,742 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience after leadership transition following the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei underpins the 98.5% trader consensus against collapse by September 30. Coordinated security operations contained nationwide protests sparked by economic hardship and currency pressures in late 2025 and early 2026, with no verified large-scale defections among Revolutionary Guards or regular forces. A June 2026 memorandum of understanding halted major hostilities with the United States and Israel, enabling the regime to reorganize command structures, manage factional tensions, and maintain institutional cohesion amid ongoing sanctions and inflation. Recent Strait of Hormuz frictions have not escalated into regime-threatening unrest. Sudden major military escalation, elite fractures, or uncontainable protest waves remain low-probability events that could still shift outcomes before the resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Binuksan ang Market: Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
Volume
$1,620,742Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 30, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience after leadership transition following the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei underpins the 98.5% trader consensus against collapse by September 30. Coordinated security operations contained nationwide protests sparked by economic hardship and currency pressures in late 2025 and early 2026, with no verified large-scale defections among Revolutionary Guards or regular forces. A June 2026 memorandum of understanding halted major hostilities with the United States and Israel, enabling the regime to reorganize command structures, manage factional tensions, and maintain institutional cohesion amid ongoing sanctions and inflation. Recent Strait of Hormuz frictions have not escalated into regime-threatening unrest. Sudden major military escalation, elite fractures, or uncontainable protest waves remain low-probability events that could still shift outcomes before the resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,620,742Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 30, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience after leadership transition following the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei underpins the 98.5% trader consensus against collapse by September 30. Coordinated security operations contained nationwide protests sparked by economic hardship and currency pressures in late 2025 and early 2026, with no verified large-scale defections among Revolutionary Guards or regular forces. A June 2026 memorandum of understanding halted major hostilities with the United States and Israel, enabling the regime to reorganize command structures, manage factional tensions, and maintain institutional cohesion amid ongoing sanctions and inflation. Recent Strait of Hormuz frictions have not escalated into regime-threatening unrest. Sudden major military escalation, elite fractures, or uncontainable protest waves remain low-probability events that could still shift outcomes before the resolution date.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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