**Iran’s post-war political landscape features persistent internal divisions between hardliners and pragmatists amid ongoing U.S. negotiations and economic pressure, yet trader consensus assigns only low single-digit to low-teens implied probability to a coup attempt by the June 30 resolution date.** Following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and triggered widespread protests, the regime transitioned power, imposed a ceasefire by April, and maintained control through security forces despite significant casualties and leadership changes. Recent developments include hardline accusations of a “soft coup” against reformist officials pursuing talks, student protests over hijab and economic conditions, and executions tied to earlier unrest, but no coordinated military or security faction effort to seize power has materialized in credible reporting. The regime’s demonstrated ability to suppress dissent, centralize wartime decision-making in the IRGC and Supreme National Security Council, and navigate diplomacy has reinforced expectations of continuity, with any shift hinging on escalation in strikes, negotiation breakdowns, or visible fractures in military loyalty before the deadline.