Ongoing regional tensions stemming from the 2026 Iran conflict continue to shape trader assessments of airspace closure risks. After a full suspension since late February that grounded commercial flights across Iranian FIR, authorities implemented a phased reopening in April, initially restoring eastern transit routes and limited operations at major airports like Tehran. Airlines have remained cautious, however, with many rerouting to avoid the area amid persistent concerns over military activity. Recent diplomatic signals and U.S. force posture in the region have kept probabilities for a qualifying broad closure by late May in the mid-30s percent range, reflecting the market’s view that escalation could rapidly trigger new restrictions while the current partial status reduces near-term likelihood. Scheduled developments in bilateral talks or security incidents within the coming weeks could alter these odds.

May 10 2026

Iran bans small private aircraft flights amid regional tensions

May 15 jumps to 14%5%

Iran issued a notice banning small private aircraft from flying in the country, with exceptions for the oil industry and emergency medical flights. This indicated heightened security concerns but did not constitute a major airspace closure affecting commercial flights.

May 9 2026

Iran resumes commercial flights at Tehran’s international airport after war hiatus

May 15 plunges to 4%28%

On May 9, 2026, Iranian state media reported the resumption of commercial flights at Imam Khomeini International Airport in Tehran for the first time since the war with the United States and Israel began. This reopening indicated that Iran's airspace was not broadly closed and commercial aviation was operational, reducing the likelihood of a major airspace closure by the May 15 deadline.