The absence of major new diplomatic incidents or attacks linked to Iran since the March 2026 expulsions by Saudi Arabia and Lebanon has shaped trader consensus, producing a 74% implied probability against another Iranian diplomat being declared persona non grata by June 30. Those earlier actions followed reported strikes and accusations of protocol violations, yet no comparable escalations have emerged in the ensuing weeks to prompt additional host governments to invoke expulsion procedures. With only six weeks left in the resolution window, the current lull in verifiable triggers supports expectations that diplomatic channels will remain stable absent fresh provocations.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateAnother Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30?
Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30?
BAGO
BAGO
Jun 30, 2026
BAGO
BAGO
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The absence of major new diplomatic incidents or attacks linked to Iran since the March 2026 expulsions by Saudi Arabia and Lebanon has shaped trader consensus, producing a 74% implied probability against another Iranian diplomat being declared persona non grata by June 30. Those earlier actions followed reported strikes and accusations of protocol violations, yet no comparable escalations have emerged in the ensuing weeks to prompt additional host governments to invoke expulsion procedures. With only six weeks left in the resolution window, the current lull in verifiable triggers supports expectations that diplomatic channels will remain stable absent fresh provocations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Binuksan ang Market: Apr 30, 2026, 2:37 PM ET
Volume
$7,649Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jun 30, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Apr 30, 2026, 2:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The absence of major new diplomatic incidents or attacks linked to Iran since the March 2026 expulsions by Saudi Arabia and Lebanon has shaped trader consensus, producing a 74% implied probability against another Iranian diplomat being declared persona non grata by June 30. Those earlier actions followed reported strikes and accusations of protocol violations, yet no comparable escalations have emerged in the ensuing weeks to prompt additional host governments to invoke expulsion procedures. With only six weeks left in the resolution window, the current lull in verifiable triggers supports expectations that diplomatic channels will remain stable absent fresh provocations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$7,649Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jun 30, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Apr 30, 2026, 2:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The absence of major new diplomatic incidents or attacks linked to Iran since the March 2026 expulsions by Saudi Arabia and Lebanon has shaped trader consensus, producing a 74% implied probability against another Iranian diplomat being declared persona non grata by June 30. Those earlier actions followed reported strikes and accusations of protocol violations, yet no comparable escalations have emerged in the ensuing weeks to prompt additional host governments to invoke expulsion procedures. With only six weeks left in the resolution window, the current lull in verifiable triggers supports expectations that diplomatic channels will remain stable absent fresh provocations.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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