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icon for Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by...?
Heopolitika·Iran

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by...?

icon for Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by...?
Heopolitika·Iran

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by...?

$2,968,591 Vol.

Jun 16, 2026
Polymarket

$2,968,591 Vol.

Polymarket

June 15

$1,066,310 Vol.

1%

June 30

$418,186 Vol.

9%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. publicly and officially announces, between Market Creation and the End Date (11:59 PM ET) that no ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is in effect. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that there is no longer any commitment in effect between the U.S. and Iran to refrain from military hostilities. Statements that the US is no longer committed to such an agreement will qualify. The expiration of a prior agreed ceasefire period without extension will not alone qualify. Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire will not alone qualify. Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework or ceasefire extension) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a mutual commitment to a halt in military hostilities will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government and the U.S. military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account), and videos posted on his social media accounts, will qualify. Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.Recent developments in the fragile US-Iran ceasefire, declared in early April 2026 and later extended indefinitely by President Trump amid intermittent violations by both sides, center on stalled talks over reopening the Strait of Hormuz, lifting related naval restrictions, and addressing Iran's nuclear program. Pakistan-mediated negotiations produced reports of a near-final memorandum of understanding for a 60-day extension and broader framework, with Trump citing breakthroughs and an expected signing around June 14. Iranian officials have signaled proximity to agreement while demanding concessions, though some US statements dismissed draft details as inaccurate and described the truce as precarious. Trader focus remains on whether diplomacy collapses into renewed strikes or yields formal extension amid these competing signals.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. publicly and officially announces, between Market Creation and the End Date (11:59 PM ET) that no ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is in effect. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that there is no longer any commitment in effect between the U.S. and Iran to refrain from military hostilities.

Statements that the US is no longer committed to such an agreement will qualify.

The expiration of a prior agreed ceasefire period without extension will not alone qualify.

Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire will not alone qualify.

Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework or ceasefire extension) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a mutual commitment to a halt in military hostilities will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government and the U.S. military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify.

Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account), and videos posted on his social media accounts, will qualify.

Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
Volume
$2,968,591
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jun 30, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Jun 8, 2026, 9:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. publicly and officially announces, between Market Creation and the End Date (11:59 PM ET) that no ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is in effect. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that there is no longer any commitment in effect between the U.S. and Iran to refrain from military hostilities. Statements that the US is no longer committed to such an agreement will qualify. The expiration of a prior agreed ceasefire period without extension will not alone qualify. Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire will not alone qualify. Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework or ceasefire extension) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a mutual commitment to a halt in military hostilities will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government and the U.S. military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account), and videos posted on his social media accounts, will qualify. Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. publicly and officially announces, between Market Creation and the End Date (11:59 PM ET) that no ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is in effect. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that there is no longer any commitment in effect between the U.S. and Iran to refrain from military hostilities. Statements that the US is no longer committed to such an agreement will qualify. The expiration of a prior agreed ceasefire period without extension will not alone qualify. Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire will not alone qualify. Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework or ceasefire extension) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a mutual commitment to a halt in military hostilities will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government and the U.S. military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account), and videos posted on his social media accounts, will qualify. Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.Recent developments in the fragile US-Iran ceasefire, declared in early April 2026 and later extended indefinitely by President Trump amid intermittent violations by both sides, center on stalled talks over reopening the Strait of Hormuz, lifting related naval restrictions, and addressing Iran's nuclear program. Pakistan-mediated negotiations produced reports of a near-final memorandum of understanding for a 60-day extension and broader framework, with Trump citing breakthroughs and an expected signing around June 14. Iranian officials have signaled proximity to agreement while demanding concessions, though some US statements dismissed draft details as inaccurate and described the truce as precarious. Trader focus remains on whether diplomacy collapses into renewed strikes or yields formal extension amid these competing signals.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. publicly and officially announces, between Market Creation and the End Date (11:59 PM ET) that no ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is in effect. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that there is no longer any commitment in effect between the U.S. and Iran to refrain from military hostilities.

Statements that the US is no longer committed to such an agreement will qualify.

The expiration of a prior agreed ceasefire period without extension will not alone qualify.

Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire will not alone qualify.

Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework or ceasefire extension) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a mutual commitment to a halt in military hostilities will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government and the U.S. military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify.

Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account), and videos posted on his social media accounts, will qualify.

Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
Volume
$2,968,591
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jun 30, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Jun 8, 2026, 9:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. publicly and officially announces, between Market Creation and the End Date (11:59 PM ET) that no ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is in effect. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that there is no longer any commitment in effect between the U.S. and Iran to refrain from military hostilities. Statements that the US is no longer committed to such an agreement will qualify. The expiration of a prior agreed ceasefire period without extension will not alone qualify. Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire will not alone qualify. Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework or ceasefire extension) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a mutual commitment to a halt in military hostilities will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government and the U.S. military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account), and videos posted on his social media accounts, will qualify. Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by...?" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 4 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "June 30" sa 9%, sinusundan ng "June 15" sa 1%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 9¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 9% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Sa ngayon, ang "Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by...?" ay naka-generate ng $3 million sa kabuuang trading volume mula nang ilunsad ang market noong Jun 9, 2026. Ang antas na ito ng trading activity ay sumasalamin sa malakas na engagement mula sa Polymarket community at tumutulong na matiyak na ang kasalukuyang odds ay sinusuportahan ng malawak na pool ng mga market participant. Maaari mong subaybayan ang live price movements at mag-trade sa anumang outcome nang direkta sa pahinang ito.

Para mag-trade sa "Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by...?," i-browse ang 4 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Isa itong wide-open market. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna para sa "Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by...?" ay "June 30" sa 9% lang, na may "June 15" na malapit sa likod sa 1%. Walang outcome na may malakas na mayorya, kaya nakikita ito ng mga trader bilang highly uncertain, na maaaring magbigay ng mga kakaibang trading opportunity. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time, kaya i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para panoorin kung paano nag-e-evolve ang probabilities.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by...?" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.