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Politika·Trump

Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?

icon for Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?
Politika·Trump

Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?

BAGO
Aug 1, 2026
Polymarket

$77 Vol.

Polymarket

Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan

$0 Vol.

45%

Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa

$0 Vol.

45%

Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah

$0 Vol.

44%

Benjamin Netanyahu

$17 Vol.

44%

Mohammed bin Salman

$0 Vol.

44%

Recep Tayyip Erdogan

$0 Vol.

44%

King Abdullah II

$0 Vol.

44%

Shehbaz Sharif

$0 Vol.

43%

Marco Rubio

$0 Vol.

43%

Masoud Pezeshkian

$0 Vol.

43%

Abbas Araghchi

$0 Vol.

43%

Steve Witkoff

$0 Vol.

43%

Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani

$0 Vol.

43%

Donald Trump

$0 Vol.

43%

Abdel Fattah el-Sisi

$0 Vol.

37%

Ali Larijani

$15 Vol.

33%

Mojtaba Khamenei

$0 Vol.

28%

Pete Hegseth

$12 Vol.

18%

JD Vance

$33 Vol.

57%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity. The United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify. The listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement. Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing US-Iran negotiations center on extending the April 2026 ceasefire, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, limiting Iran's nuclear program and enriched uranium stockpile, and easing sanctions, with President Trump and Iranian officials exchanging demands through mediators. Recent US strikes on Iranian targets in early June 2026, followed by Iranian missile and drone responses, have heightened tensions and prompted renewed warnings of escalation if no agreement emerges. Both sides cite prior breakdowns, including 2025 talks and the 12-Day War, while Iran seeks simultaneous concessions and asset releases, and the US emphasizes verifiable nuclear restraints. Trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over whether current brinkmanship yields a signed deal or renewed conflict before key deadlines.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity.

The United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify.

The listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement.

Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$77
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 1, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Jun 11, 2026, 8:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity. The United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify. The listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement. Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity. The United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify. The listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement. Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing US-Iran negotiations center on extending the April 2026 ceasefire, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, limiting Iran's nuclear program and enriched uranium stockpile, and easing sanctions, with President Trump and Iranian officials exchanging demands through mediators. Recent US strikes on Iranian targets in early June 2026, followed by Iranian missile and drone responses, have heightened tensions and prompted renewed warnings of escalation if no agreement emerges. Both sides cite prior breakdowns, including 2025 talks and the 12-Day War, while Iran seeks simultaneous concessions and asset releases, and the US emphasizes verifiable nuclear restraints. Trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over whether current brinkmanship yields a signed deal or renewed conflict before key deadlines.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity.

The United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify.

The listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement.

Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$77
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 1, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Jun 11, 2026, 8:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity. The United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify. The listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement. Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 19 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "JD Vance" sa 57%, sinusundan ng "Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan" sa 45%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 57¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 57% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Ang "Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?" ay isang bagong likhang market sa Polymarket, inilunsad noong Jun 12, 2026. Bilang isang maagang market, ito ang iyong pagkakataon na maging kabilang sa mga unang trader na magtakda ng odds at mag-establish ng mga paunang price signal ng market. Maaari mo ring i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para subaybayan ang volume at trading activity habang lumalaki ang market sa paglipas ng panahon.

Para mag-trade sa "Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?," i-browse ang 19 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?" ay "JD Vance" sa 57%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 57% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan" sa 45%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.