Ongoing indirect U.S.-Iran talks remain stalled following the collapse of the June 2026 memorandum of understanding and rejection of Iran’s September proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days in exchange for sanctions relief. Major gaps persist on uranium enrichment reductions, verification access, and sequencing of sanctions relief, with U.S. Vice President Vance reiterating demands for meaningful capacity cuts as of early October. IAEA reports of non-compliance and failed U.S. efforts to extend monitoring mandates, blocked by Russian and Chinese vetoes in the Security Council, further complicate any path to a comprehensive agreement. With U.S. midterms approaching and no finalized text in sight, traders assess low odds of a binding UNSC resolution endorsing a final deal by December 31.