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icon for US and Iran sign an agreement by...?

US and Iran sign an agreement by...?

icon for US and Iran sign an agreement by...?

US and Iran sign an agreement by...?

BAGO
Jun 16, 2026
Polymarket

$110 Vol.

Polymarket

June 15

$7 Vol.

34%

June 22

$97 Vol.

43%

June 30

$0 Vol.

57%

July 31

$6 Vol.

65%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States signs any written agreement with the Islamic Republic of Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement must be signed by both an authorized representative of the United States and an authorized representative of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Both parties must either sign the same document, or sign individual documents which substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying agreement, regardless of minor or translated differences between the signed versions. Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent diplomatic efforts center on converting a temporary April 2026 ceasefire—mediated by Pakistan—into a longer-term framework amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict. US and Iranian negotiators reached a tentative 60-day memorandum of understanding in late May covering Strait of Hormuz reopening, eased port restrictions, and renewed nuclear program talks, though it awaits final sign-off from President Trump and Iranian leadership. Trump has repeatedly described documents as near-final and a signing as imminent within days, while directing negotiators not to rush and canceling planned strikes; Iranian statements remain more guarded. These developments, alongside stalled prior rounds in Oman and Islamabad plus flare-ups in exchanges, shape trader assessments of near-term agreement prospects versus risks of renewed escalation or prolonged haggling over sanctions and enrichment limits.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States signs any written agreement with the Islamic Republic of Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying agreement must be signed by both an authorized representative of the United States and an authorized representative of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Both parties must either sign the same document, or sign individual documents which substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying agreement, regardless of minor or translated differences between the signed versions.

Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$110
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jul 31, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Jun 11, 2026, 6:12 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States signs any written agreement with the Islamic Republic of Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement must be signed by both an authorized representative of the United States and an authorized representative of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Both parties must either sign the same document, or sign individual documents which substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying agreement, regardless of minor or translated differences between the signed versions. Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States signs any written agreement with the Islamic Republic of Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement must be signed by both an authorized representative of the United States and an authorized representative of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Both parties must either sign the same document, or sign individual documents which substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying agreement, regardless of minor or translated differences between the signed versions. Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent diplomatic efforts center on converting a temporary April 2026 ceasefire—mediated by Pakistan—into a longer-term framework amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict. US and Iranian negotiators reached a tentative 60-day memorandum of understanding in late May covering Strait of Hormuz reopening, eased port restrictions, and renewed nuclear program talks, though it awaits final sign-off from President Trump and Iranian leadership. Trump has repeatedly described documents as near-final and a signing as imminent within days, while directing negotiators not to rush and canceling planned strikes; Iranian statements remain more guarded. These developments, alongside stalled prior rounds in Oman and Islamabad plus flare-ups in exchanges, shape trader assessments of near-term agreement prospects versus risks of renewed escalation or prolonged haggling over sanctions and enrichment limits.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States signs any written agreement with the Islamic Republic of Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying agreement must be signed by both an authorized representative of the United States and an authorized representative of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Both parties must either sign the same document, or sign individual documents which substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying agreement, regardless of minor or translated differences between the signed versions.

Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$110
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jul 31, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Jun 11, 2026, 6:12 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States signs any written agreement with the Islamic Republic of Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement must be signed by both an authorized representative of the United States and an authorized representative of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Both parties must either sign the same document, or sign individual documents which substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying agreement, regardless of minor or translated differences between the signed versions. Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "US and Iran sign an agreement by...?" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 4 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "July 31" sa 65%, sinusundan ng "June 30" sa 57%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 65¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 65% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Ang "US and Iran sign an agreement by...?" ay isang bagong likhang market sa Polymarket, inilunsad noong Jun 11, 2026. Bilang isang maagang market, ito ang iyong pagkakataon na maging kabilang sa mga unang trader na magtakda ng odds at mag-establish ng mga paunang price signal ng market. Maaari mo ring i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para subaybayan ang volume at trading activity habang lumalaki ang market sa paglipas ng panahon.

Para mag-trade sa "US and Iran sign an agreement by...?," i-browse ang 4 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "US and Iran sign an agreement by...?" ay "July 31" sa 65%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 65% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "June 30" sa 57%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "US and Iran sign an agreement by...?" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.