The regime's demonstrated resilience after the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other senior figures underpins the 78% implied probability it will not fall before 2028. Succession occurred rapidly with Mojtaba Khamenei installed, security forces maintained cohesion without major defections, and authorities suppressed the largest protests since 2022 through lethal force that killed thousands. Ongoing U.S. sanctions, port blockades, and rejected Iranian proposals for a seven-day Hormuz ceasefire have imposed severe economic strain, yet the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and state institutions have adapted without fracturing. Traders view these factors, alongside the regime's willingness to absorb pain to preserve control, as significant barriers to collapse in the near term.